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Flood hazard mapping in western Iran: assessment of deep learning vis-à-vis machine learning models

Author

Listed:
  • Eslam Satarzadeh

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Amirpouya Sarraf

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Hooman Hajikandi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian

    (Islamic Azad University)

Abstract

On March 25, 2019, widespread flood events occurred across Iran’s provinces and set a new record for socioeconomic losses and casualties. In hindsight, it opened an engrossed area of research for flood hazard mapping, something that has previously been pursued yet not embraced as must they should. In pursuit of reconciling the decision-makers and authorities with the successful application of machine/deep learning models in pattern extraction and detection of hotspots, we employed a deep learning model named Deep Belief Network (DBN), and then it was hybridized using particle swarm optimization (DBN-PSO) and genetic algorithm (DBN-GA). Their results were compared to Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) that have been known as benchmark models in the field of flood susceptibility. The area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistic (TSS) were used for performance assessment through three sample partitioning replicates, which further indicated models’ predictive performance and robustness. Results revealed that DBN-PSO was the best model in terms of prediction performance (AUCmean = 0.957, TSSmean = 0.748) and robustness (RAUC = 0.6%, RTSS = 0.8%). Furthermore, all the standalone DBN and its hybrid models outperformed benchmark models including RF (AUCmean = 0.911, TSSmean = 0.714, RAUC = 1.5%, RTSS = 2.1%) and SVM (AUCmean = 0.899, TSSmean = 0.692, RAUC = 2.1%, RTSS = 2.3%). In addition, drainage density was the most important factor in flood susceptibility modeling. Accordingly, about 13.5% of the region was addressed as the high hazard zone of flood occurrence based on the DBN-PSO model, which should be considered for further pragmatic actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eslam Satarzadeh & Amirpouya Sarraf & Hooman Hajikandi & Mohammad Sadegh Sadeghian, 2022. "Flood hazard mapping in western Iran: assessment of deep learning vis-à-vis machine learning models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1355-1373, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:111:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05098-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05098-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kris A. Johnson & Oliver E. J. Wing & Paul D. Bates & Joseph Fargione & Timm Kroeger & William D. Larson & Christopher C. Sampson & Andrew M. Smith, 2020. "A benefit–cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for US flood damage reduction," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 56-62, January.
    2. Omid Rahmati & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2017. "Identification of Critical Flood Prone Areas in Data-Scarce and Ungauged Regions: A Comparison of Three Data Mining Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1473-1487, March.
    3. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vijendra Kumar & Hazi Md. Azamathulla & Kul Vaibhav Sharma & Darshan J. Mehta & Kiran Tota Maharaj, 2023. "The State of the Art in Deep Learning Applications, Challenges, and Future Prospects: A Comprehensive Review of Flood Forecasting and Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-33, July.
    2. Sukanta Malakar & Abhishek K. Rai & Arun K. Gupta, 2023. "Earthquake risk mapping in the Himalayas by integrated analytical hierarchy process, entropy with neural network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 951-975, March.
    3. Ahmed M. Youssef & Ali M. Mahdi & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2023. "Optimal flood susceptibility model based on performance comparisons of LR, EGB, and RF algorithms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1071-1096, January.

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