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Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato

Author

Listed:
  • Veronica Villani

    (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Elvira Romano

    (Universitá degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli)

  • Giuliana Barbato

    (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Paola Mercogliano

    (Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

Abstract

In this work we propose an approach for selecting a subset of regional climate models that have a reasonable skill in simulating the past climate and represent changes in average and extreme climatic conditions well. After that, it is carried out a post-processing of the selected models based on quantile mapping correction. The selection of a subset of climate models is a crucial step when conducting climate change impact studies. Performaces of the proposed approach have been evaluated considering as a case study the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato located in Italy. The climatic parameter adopted for the evaluation of the thermal discomfort due to high temperatures is the humidex index. For this specific test case, the approach defined and used to select an appropriate subset of EURO-CORDEX climate models to evaluate changes in the trend of humidex index and the related uncertainty, proved to be valid .

Suggested Citation

  • Veronica Villani & Elvira Romano & Giuliana Barbato & Paola Mercogliano, 2021. "Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1541-1557, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04645-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04645-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wendy S. Parker, 2013. "Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 213-223, May.
    3. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
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