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Dynamic hazard assessment of group-occurring debris flows based on a coupled model

Author

Listed:
  • Yinping Nie

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Village and Town Construction Service Center of Longgang Town of Kaiyang County)

  • Xiuzhen Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Colorado School of Mines)

  • Wendy Zhou

    (Colorado School of Mines)

  • Ruichi Xu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

A scientific hazard zoning of debris flows can ensure that human activities are not performed therein, thereby reducing economic loss as much as possible. In this study, by considering the formation background conditions of mountain hazards and dynamic rainfall conditions, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS) and Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (Flow-R) are organically combined to establish a new coupled model for debris flow dynamic hazard assessment from the viewpoint of landslides providing the material source of debris flows. The coupled model was employed in Qingping township, Sichuan province of China, which was severely damaged by the “5·12” Wenchuan earthquake in 2008. Evaluation results show that the accuracy of the coupled model is 87.98%, which is significantly higher than that of the static Flow-R model (75.51%). This study not only considers the effect of the formation condition of mountain hazards and rainfall-induced shallow landslides on the source of debris flows, but also realises real-time hazard assessment and prediction of group-occurring debris flows. The coupled model used in this study provides a new perspective and is paramount for improving the accuracy and reliability of debris flow hazard assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinping Nie & Xiuzhen Li & Wendy Zhou & Ruichi Xu, 2021. "Dynamic hazard assessment of group-occurring debris flows based on a coupled model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2635-2661, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04558-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04558-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zonghu Liao & Yang Hong & Dalia Kirschbaum & Robert Adler & Jonathan Gourley & Rick Wooten, 2011. "Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: a case study in Macon County, North Carol," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 325-339, July.
    2. D. W. Park & S. R. Lee & N. N. Vasu & S. H. Kang & J. Y. Park, 2016. "Coupled model for simulation of landslides and debris flows at local scale," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1653-1682, April.
    3. Giuseppe Sorbino & Carlo Sica & Leonardo Cascini, 2010. "Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(2), pages 313-332, May.
    4. Jeng-Wen Lin & Cheng-Wu Chen & Cheng-Yi Peng, 2012. "Potential hazard analysis and risk assessment of debris flow by fuzzy modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 273-282, October.
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