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Improving the flood forecasting capability of the Xinanjiang model for small- and medium-sized ungauged catchments in South China

Author

Listed:
  • Junfu Gong

    (Hohai University)

  • Cheng Yao

    (Hohai University)

  • Zhijia Li

    (Hohai University)

  • Yuanfang Chen

    (Hohai University)

  • Yingchun Huang

    (Hohai University)

  • Bingxing Tong

    (Hohai University)

Abstract

Prediction in ungauged basins (PUB) is as crucial as it is challenging. Thus far, there have been abundant regionalization studies on PUB, whereas "regionalization" is the main research method. In order to estimate Xinanjiang model parameters in ungauged areas and improve the accuracy of flood simulation for small and medium-sized ungauged catchments, the Xinanjiang model was applied on 33 mountainous small- and medium-sized catchments in south China. This study investigated the relative benefits of traditional regionalization methods (physical similarity and parameter regression) and physically consistent parameter estimation method. The latter can directly estimate three sensitive parameters of the Xinanjiang model without the need of regionalization. In addition, the effect of the number of donor catchments was addressed. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the traditional regionalization methods did not obtain satisfactory prediction results. However, the integrated schemes, which combine the regionalization methods with physically consistent methods, performed considerably better than the traditional regionalization methods, indicating that directly performing a parameter estimation from underlying surface data of ungauged catchments can improve the transferability of the Xinanjiang model in these catchments. On the other hand, the best accuracy was obtained when the number of donor catchments was equal to five in the integrated schemes. The integrated parameter estimation schemes proposed in this study support more effective hourly flood event simulation for small- and medium-sized ungauged catchments in southern China.

Suggested Citation

  • Junfu Gong & Cheng Yao & Zhijia Li & Yuanfang Chen & Yingchun Huang & Bingxing Tong, 2021. "Improving the flood forecasting capability of the Xinanjiang model for small- and medium-sized ungauged catchments in South China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2077-2109, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04531-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04531-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ralf Merz & Günter Blöschl & Günter Humer, 2008. "National flood discharge mapping in Austria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 53-72, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hao Ke & Wenzhuo Wang & Zengchuan Dong & Benyou Jia & Ziqin Zheng & Shujun Wu, 2024. "Xinanjiang-Based Interval Forecasting Model for Daily Streamflow Considering Climate Change Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(14), pages 5507-5522, November.
    2. Chaowei Xu & Jiashuai Yang & Lingyue Wang, 2022. "Application of Remote-Sensing-Based Hydraulic Model and Hydrological Model in Flood Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Chaowei Xu & Hao Fu & Jiashuai Yang & Lingyue Wang & Yizhen Wang, 2022. "Land-Use-Based Runoff Yield Method to Modify Hydrological Model for Flood Management: A Case in the Basin of Simple Underlying Surface," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.

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