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Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Syeda Maria Ali

    (International Islamic University)

  • Bushra Khalid

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics)

  • Asma Akhter

    (University of Regina)

  • Aneeza Islam

    (International Islamic University)

  • Shahzada Adnan

    (National Drought Monitoring Center)

Abstract

Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are immensely changing throughout the world. This study aims to give insight into the changing climatic patterns leading to severe flood and drought conditions in the interior of Punjab province of Pakistan and devise adaptation strategies for risk governance. Landsat TM 30 m imagery was processed for flood analysis, while for drought analysis, Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) were calculated from MODIS (MOD11A2 and MOD13A2) imageries. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted to prepare a management plan based on views of experts and local communities. The main regions affected by extreme events (flood and drought) in interior Punjab were Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Mianwali, Multan, Sargodha, and Rahim Yar Khan. Supervised classification shows flooding in the Mianwali district during August 2010, and TVDI values show that drought prevailed during the year 2000 in the Bahawalpur district. Annual precipitation showed a significant trend in Sargodha and Mianwali with the magnitude of 6.95 mm/year and 2.97 mm/year, respectively. However, SPI moves to positive in the case of all studied districts except Sargodha where temperature change is 0.6 °C. Climatic analysis and survey show that the people of districts, i.e., Faisalabad, Mianwali, Multan, and Sargodha, were more affected by floods, whereas the people of districts, i.e., Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan, were affected by both flood and drought. Adaptation strategies suggest that the flood water should be conserved which can help farmers in irrigation throughout the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Syeda Maria Ali & Bushra Khalid & Asma Akhter & Aneeza Islam & Shahzada Adnan, 2020. "Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2533-2559, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04095-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04095-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bushra Khalid & Bueh Cholaw & Débora Souza Alvim & Shumaila Javeed & Junaid Aziz Khan & Muhammad Asif Javed & Azmat Hayat Khan, 2018. "Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 971-993, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Waseem Akhter & Khalid Zaman & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro, 2020. "Nexus between natural and technical disaster shocks, resource depletion and growth-specific factors: evidence from quantile regression," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 143-169, October.
    2. Pomi Shahbaz & Azhar Abbas & Babar Aziz & Bader Alhafi Alotaibi & Abou Traore, 2022. "Nexus between Climate-Smart Livestock Production Practices and Farmers’ Nutritional Security in Pakistan: Exploring Level, Linkages, and Determinants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Salman Atif & Muhammad Umar & Fahim Ullah, 2021. "Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2357-2383, September.
    4. Muhammad Awais Hussain & Shuai Zhang & Muhammad Muneer & Muhammad Aamir Moawwez & Muhammad Kamran & Ejaz Ahmed, 2022. "Assessing and Mapping Spatial Variation Characteristics of Natural Hazards in Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, December.

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