Evaluating post-hurricane impacts in co-management areas: a framework for expert consensus

Natural ecosystems are characterized as dynamic systems that evolve through natural patterns of disturbance. Land managers can work within this system of natural disturbance by applying the concept of natural variability to their management plans. Land management challenges typically stem from infrequent and severe disturbances, like hurricanes, where resource management and conservation implications are a result of significant changes to a landscape’s patch dynamics. A frequently used strategy for overcoming these challenges is co-management. Since cooperative management requires collaboration across sectors, institutional and organization integration must be approached strategically. The importance of developing agreement on shared issues makes finding an effective consensus-building process critical. This study utilized the Delphi technique to develop consensus and identify the most significant post-hurricane impacts experienced by land managers following Hurricane Irma. We purposively selected a panel of 24 land managers that represented multiple sectors including county government, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies. The study used a series of three online surveys, which were validated using an expert panel of evaluators, land managers, survey designers and natural resource educators. The panel achieved consensus on 5 post-hurricane impacts that they identified to have a significant effect on achieving their land management goals. The Delphi technique demonstrated to be a valuable process for gaining input from a diverse set of experts in the identification of agreed upon challenges to land management that resulted from extreme weather events. Our results serve as a foundation for discussions on management strategies to address extreme natural disturbances.