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Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes

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  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Itmam Ahmed

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Md. Siddiqur Rahman

    (Begum Rokeya University)

Abstract

An understanding of the trend in cooling and heating degree-days acts as a driving force for building energy demand under climate change conditions. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trend patterns in cooling and heating degree-days in recent times and their possible causes in Bangladesh. Therefore, we explored the trend and variability of cooling degree-days (CDD) and heating degree-days (HDD) and their possible reasons for variation for the study period 1980–2017 based on daily temperatures datasets from 27 sites in Bangladesh. The results show that the highest annual mean CDD and HDD were identified in the southwestern and central climatic regions of Bangladesh. The CDD trend has significantly increased in Bangladesh, and the HDD trend has increased but non-significance. The outcomes of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and R/S analysis exhibit that CDD and HDD will continue their contemporary trend direction in the future. Land–Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) had a significant positive influence on CDD; however, there was no significant correlation between HDD and atmospheric circulation indices. The importance analysis from the random forest (RF) model showed that the LOTI is the highest contributing variable for CDD and East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) is the largest influential variable for HDD affecting climate variability in Bangladesh. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis datasets depict that higher summer geopotential height, an anticyclonic center, enhanced relative humidity, declined total and high cloud covers, decreasing surface solar radiation, and high skin temperature fluxes might have influenced on CDD and HDD variations in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Itmam Ahmed & Md. Siddiqur Rahman, 2020. "Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 879-909, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:101:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03900-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mourshed, Monjur, 2011. "The impact of the projected changes in temperature on heating and cooling requirements in buildings in Dhaka, Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3737-3746.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Mohammad Mahbub Kabir & Sharmina Faruk & Jawad Jahin & Md. Bodrud-Doza & Md. Didar-ul-Alam & Newaz Mohammed Bahadur & Mohammad Mohinuzzaman & Konica J. Fatema & M. Safiur, 2021. "Sustainable groundwater quality in southeast coastal Bangladesh: co-dispersions, sources, and probabilistic health risk assessment," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 18394-18423, December.
    2. Mehmet Bilgili, 2023. "Time series forecasting on cooling degree-days (CDD) using SARIMA model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2569-2592, September.
    3. Yuanzheng Li & Wenjing Wang & Yating Wang & Yashu Xin & Tian He & Guosong Zhao, 2020. "A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Yuanzheng Li & Jinyuan Li & Ao Xu & Zhizhi Feng & Chanjuan Hu & Guosong Zhao, 2021. "Spatial-Temporal Changes and Associated Determinants of Global Heating Degree Days," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Javed Mallick & Roquia Salam & Ruhul Amin & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Aznarul Islam & Md. Nur Alam Siddik & G. M. Monirul Alam, 2022. "Assessing factors affecting drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1633-1656, June.

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