IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v101y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-03900-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes

Author

Listed:
  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Itmam Ahmed

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Md. Siddiqur Rahman

    (Begum Rokeya University)

Abstract

An understanding of the trend in cooling and heating degree-days acts as a driving force for building energy demand under climate change conditions. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trend patterns in cooling and heating degree-days in recent times and their possible causes in Bangladesh. Therefore, we explored the trend and variability of cooling degree-days (CDD) and heating degree-days (HDD) and their possible reasons for variation for the study period 1980–2017 based on daily temperatures datasets from 27 sites in Bangladesh. The results show that the highest annual mean CDD and HDD were identified in the southwestern and central climatic regions of Bangladesh. The CDD trend has significantly increased in Bangladesh, and the HDD trend has increased but non-significance. The outcomes of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and R/S analysis exhibit that CDD and HDD will continue their contemporary trend direction in the future. Land–Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) had a significant positive influence on CDD; however, there was no significant correlation between HDD and atmospheric circulation indices. The importance analysis from the random forest (RF) model showed that the LOTI is the highest contributing variable for CDD and East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) is the largest influential variable for HDD affecting climate variability in Bangladesh. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis datasets depict that higher summer geopotential height, an anticyclonic center, enhanced relative humidity, declined total and high cloud covers, decreasing surface solar radiation, and high skin temperature fluxes might have influenced on CDD and HDD variations in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Itmam Ahmed & Md. Siddiqur Rahman, 2020. "Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 879-909, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:101:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03900-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mourshed, Monjur, 2011. "The impact of the projected changes in temperature on heating and cooling requirements in buildings in Dhaka, Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3737-3746.
    2. Dombaycı, Ö. Altan, 2009. "Degree-days maps of Turkey for various base temperatures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1807-1812.
    3. Al-Hadhrami, L.M., 2013. "Comprehensive review of cooling and heating degree days characteristics over Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 305-314.
    4. Serrano, Susana & Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana & Barreneche, Camila & Palacios, Anabel & Cabeza, Luisa F., 2017. "Heating and cooling energy trends and drivers in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 425-434.
    5. Khuram Pervez Amber & Muhammad Waqar Aslam & Faraz Ikram & Anila Kousar & Hafiz Muhammad Ali & Naveed Akram & Kamran Afzal & Haroon Mushtaq, 2018. "Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Maps of Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Mohammad Mahbub Kabir & Sharmina Faruk & Jawad Jahin & Md. Bodrud-Doza & Md. Didar-ul-Alam & Newaz Mohammed Bahadur & Mohammad Mohinuzzaman & Konica J. Fatema & M. Safiur, 2021. "Sustainable groundwater quality in southeast coastal Bangladesh: co-dispersions, sources, and probabilistic health risk assessment," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 18394-18423, December.
    2. Mehmet Bilgili, 2023. "Time series forecasting on cooling degree-days (CDD) using SARIMA model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2569-2592, September.
    3. Yuanzheng Li & Wenjing Wang & Yating Wang & Yashu Xin & Tian He & Guosong Zhao, 2020. "A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Yuanzheng Li & Jinyuan Li & Ao Xu & Zhizhi Feng & Chanjuan Hu & Guosong Zhao, 2021. "Spatial-Temporal Changes and Associated Determinants of Global Heating Degree Days," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Javed Mallick & Roquia Salam & Ruhul Amin & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Aznarul Islam & Md. Nur Alam Siddik & G. M. Monirul Alam, 2022. "Assessing factors affecting drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1633-1656, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D'Amico, A. & Ciulla, G. & Panno, D. & Ferrari, S., 2019. "Building energy demand assessment through heating degree days: The importance of a climatic dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1285-1306.
    2. Roshan, Gh.R. & Ghanghermeh, A.A. & Attia, S., 2017. "Determining new threshold temperatures for cooling and heating degree day index of different climatic zones of Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 156-167.
    3. Omarov, Bekarys & Memon, Shazim Ali & Kim, Jong, 2023. "A novel approach to develop climate classification based on degree days and building energy performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    4. Atalla, Tarek & Gualdi, Silvio & Lanza, Alessandro, 2018. "A global degree days database for energy-related applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1048-1055.
    5. Bojić, Milorad & Cvetković, Dragan & Bojić, Ljubiša, 2015. "Decreasing energy use and influence to environment by radiant panel heating using different energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 404-413.
    6. Olsthoorn, Mark & Schleich, Joachim & Faure, Corinne, 2019. "Exploring the diffusion of low-energy houses: An empirical study in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1382-1393.
    7. Roshan, Gh.R. & Orosa, J.A & Nasrabadi, T., 2012. "Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings, case study of Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 731-739.
    8. Chai, Jiale & Huang, Pei & Sun, Yongjun, 2019. "Investigations of climate change impacts on net-zero energy building lifecycle performance in typical Chinese climate regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 176-189.
    9. Seo, Dong-yeon & Koo, Choongwan & Hong, Taehoon, 2015. "A Lagrangian finite element model for estimating the heating and cooling demand of a residential building with a different envelope design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 66-79.
    10. Zhu, Dan & Tao, Shu & Wang, Rong & Shen, Huizhong & Huang, Ye & Shen, Guofeng & Wang, Bin & Li, Wei & Zhang, Yanyan & Chen, Han & Chen, Yuanchen & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Wenx, 2013. "Temporal and spatial trends of residential energy consumption and air pollutant emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 17-24.
    11. Javanroodi, Kavan & Mahdavinejad, Mohammadjavad & Nik, Vahid M., 2018. "Impacts of urban morphology on reducing cooling load and increasing ventilation potential in hot-arid climate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 714-746.
    12. Krese, Gorazd & Lampret, Žiga & Butala, Vincenc & Prek, Matjaž, 2018. "Determination of a Building's balance point temperature as an energy characteristic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1034-1049.
    13. Mourshed, Monjur, 2016. "Climatic parameters for building energy applications: A temporal-geospatial assessment of temperature indicators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 55-71.
    14. Amin, Amin & Mourshed, Monjur, 2024. "Weather and climate data for energy applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    15. Yuan, Jihui & Huang, Pei & Chai, Jiale, 2022. "Development of a calibrated typical meteorological year weather file in system design of zero-energy building for performance improvements," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    16. Waqas Ahmed Mahar & Griet Verbeeck & Sigrid Reiter & Shady Attia, 2020. "Sensitivity Analysis of Passive Design Strategies for Residential Buildings in Cold Semi-Arid Climates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Salari, Mahmoud & Javid, Roxana J., 2017. "Modeling household energy expenditure in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 822-832.
    18. Pinto, Edwin S. & Gronier, Timothé & Franquet, Erwin & Serra, Luis M., 2023. "Opportunities and economic assessment for a third-party delivering electricity, heat and cold to residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    19. Chen, Yi-kuang & Jensen, Ida Græsted & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2021. "Impact of fossil-free decentralized heating on northern European renewable energy deployment and the power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    20. Abdul Mujeebu, Muhammad & Alshamrani, Othman Subhi, 2016. "Prospects of energy conservation and management in buildings – The Saudi Arabian scenario versus global trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1647-1663.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:101:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03900-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.