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Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao-jun Wang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jian-yun Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
    Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)

  • Shou-hai Bi

    (Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Amgad Elmahdi

    (Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Chuan-hua Liao

    (Nanjing Tech University)

  • You-de Li

    (Huaihe River Water Resources Commission)

Abstract

A framework is proposed for forecasting industrial water demand in the context of climate change, economic growth, and technological development. The framework was tested in five sub-basins of Huaihe River of China, namely Upstream of Huaihe River (UH), Middlestream of Huaihe River (MH), Downstream of Huaihe River (DH), Yishusi River (YSSR), and Coastal River of Shandong Peninsula (CSP) to project future changes in industrial water demand under different environment change scenarios. Results showed that industrial water demand in Huaihe River basin will increase in the range of 10 to 44.6% due to economic development, water-saving technological advances, and climate change. The highest increase was projected by general circulation model (GCM) BCC-CSM1–1 (179.16 × 108 m3) and the lowest by GCM GISS-E2-R (132.4 × 108 m3) in 2020, while the GCM BNU-ESM projected the highest increase (190.57 × 108 m3) and GCM CNRM-CM5 the lowest (160.41 × 108 m3) in 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase was projected in MH sub-basin where industrial water demand is already very high. On the other hand, the lowest increase in industrial water demand was projected in UH sub-basin. The rapid growth of high water-consuming industries and increased water demand for cooling due to temperature rise are the major causes of the sharp increase in industrial water demand in the basin. The framework developed in the study can be used for reliable forecasting of industrial water demand which in turn can help in selection of an appropriate water management strategy for adaptation to global environmental changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Shou-hai Bi & Amgad Elmahdi & Chuan-hua Liao & You-de Li, 2018. "Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 469-483, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11027-017-9744-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9744-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Shaokun He & Shenglian Guo & Guang Yang & Kebing Chen & Dedi Liu & Yanlai Zhou, 2020. "Optimizing Operation Rules of Cascade Reservoirs for Adapting Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.

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