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Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin

Author

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  • Jeßberger Christoph

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany)

  • Sindram Maximilian

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany)

  • Zimmer Markus

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany)

Abstract

Using the environmental decision support system DANUBIA, we analyze the effects of climate change on industry and compare the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects of climate change in this region are expected to be caused by changes in the water-cycle, we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchment area. Industry is the main regional user of water resources.Water is an essential production factor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We apply estimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany, to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, we are able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of social scenarios using an innovative model of the reciprocal influences of a huge network of interdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences in production site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios of moderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmental effects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regional economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeßberger Christoph & Sindram Maximilian & Zimmer Markus, 2011. "Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(3), pages 415-439, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:231:y:2011:i:3:p:415-439
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0307
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & En-hong Guan & Yong-xiang Wu & Juan Gao & Rui-min He, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 81-99, January.
    2. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Shou-hai Bi & Amgad Elmahdi & Chuan-hua Liao & You-de Li, 2018. "Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 469-483, April.
    3. R. R. Weerasooriya & L. P. K. Liyanage & R. H. K. Rathnappriya & W. B. M. A. C. Bandara & T. A. N. T. Perera & M. H. J. P. Gunarathna & G. Y. Jayasinghe, 2021. "Industrial water conservation by water footprint and sustainable development goals: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 12661-12709, September.
    4. Roland Barthel & Tim Reichenau & Tatjana Krimly & Stephan Dabbert & Karl Schneider & Wolfram Mauser, 2012. "Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1929-1951, May.
    5. Juha Itkonen, 2010. "Internal Validity of Estimating the Carbon Kuznets Curve by Controlling for Energy Use," ifo Working Paper Series 95, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental decision support system; climate change; water-cycle; river basin management; Environmental decision support system; climate change; water-cycle; river basin management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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