IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v49y2013icp193-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany – A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Hoffmann, Bastian
  • Häfele, Sebastian
  • Karl, Ute

Abstract

The majority of thermal power plants of more than 300 MW use river water for cooling purposes. Increasing water and air temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the efficiency and the power production of these power plants. In this paper we analyse these impacts by modelling selected German thermal power plant units and their respective cooling systems through dynamic simulation taking into account legal thresholds for heat discharges to river water together with climate data projections (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Possible output and efficiency reductions in the future (2011–2040 and 2041–2070) are quantified for thermal power plants with once-through (OTC) and closed-circuit (CCC) cooling systems under current legislative framework. The model validation showed that the chosen System Dynamics approach is appropriate to analyse impacts of climate change on thermal power units. The model results indicate lowest impacts for units with CCC systems: The mean trend for CCC for the A1B scenario (2011–2070) is expected to be −0.10 MW/a and −0.33 MW/a for an OTC system. On a daily basis, the power output of all considered OTC units is reduced down to 66.4% of the nominal capacity, for a single unit even down to 32%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Bastian & Häfele, Sebastian & Karl, Ute, 2013. "Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany – A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 193-203.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:49:y:2013:i:c:p:193-203
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544212007967
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristin Linnerud & Torben K. Mideksa & Gunnar S. Eskeland, 2011. "The Impact of Climate Change on Nuclear Power Supply," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(1), pages 149-168, January.
    2. Banovac, Eraldo & Glavić, Mevludin & Tešnjak, Sejid, 2009. "Establishing an efficient regulatory mechanism—Prerequisite for successful energy activities regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 178-189.
    3. Koch, Hagen & Vögele, Stefan, 2009. "Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2031-2039, May.
    4. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & John R. Yearsley & Fulco Ludwig & Stefan Vögele & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Pavel Kabat, 2012. "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 676-681, September.
    5. Jarvis, Darryl S.L. & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2011. "Conceptualizing and evaluating best practices in electricity and water regulatory governance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4340-4352.
    6. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    7. Feeley, Thomas J. & Skone, Timothy J. & Stiegel, Gary J. & McNemar, Andrea & Nemeth, Michael & Schimmoller, Brian & Murphy, James T. & Manfredo, Lynn, 2008. "Water: A critical resource in the thermoelectric power industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-11.
    8. Hagen Koch & Stefan Vögele & Michael Kaltofen & Uwe Grünewald, 2012. "Trends in water demand and water availability for power plants—scenario analyses for the German capital Berlin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 879-899, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Siviter, J. & Montecucco, A. & Knox, A.R., 2015. "Rankine cycle efficiency gain using thermoelectric heat pumps," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 161-170.
    2. Romagnoli, Francesco & Barisa, Aiga & Dzene, Ilze & Blumberga, Andra & Blumberga, Dagnija, 2014. "Implementation of different policy strategies promoting the use of wood fuel in the Latvian district heating system: Impact evaluation through a system dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 210-222.
    3. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    4. Pechan, Anna & Eisenack, Klaus, 2014. "The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-71.
    5. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    6. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    7. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    8. Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    9. Bouckaert, Stéphanie & Assoumou, Edi & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2014. "A prospective analysis of waste heat management at power plants and water conservation issues using a global TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 80-91.
    10. Klein, Daniel R. & Olonscheck, Mady & Walther, Carsten & Kropp, Jürgen P., 2013. "Susceptibility of the European electricity sector to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 183-193.
    11. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1183-1217.
    12. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koch, Hagen & Vögele, Stefan, 2013. "Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-51.
    2. Eisenack, Klaus, 2016. "Institutional adaptation to cooling water scarcity for thermoelectric power generation under global warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 153-163.
    3. Bogmans, Christian W.J. & Dijkema, Gerard P.J. & van Vliet, Michelle T.H., 2017. "Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Guerra, Omar J. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2018. "Advances and challenges in water management within energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4009-4019.
    5. Pechan, Anna & Eisenack, Klaus, 2014. "The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-71.
    6. Grant R. McDermott & Øivind A. Nilse, 2014. "Electricity Prices, River Temperatures, and Cooling Water Scarcity," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 131-148.
    7. Eyer, Jonathan & Wichman, Casey J., 2018. "Does water scarcity shift the electricity generation mix toward fossil fuels? Empirical evidence from the United States," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-241.
    8. Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    9. H. Koch & S. Vögele & M. Kaltofen & M. Grossmann & U. Grünewald, 2014. "Security of Water Supply and Electricity Production: Aspects of Integrated Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1767-1780, April.
    10. Bouckaert, Stéphanie & Assoumou, Edi & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2014. "A prospective analysis of waste heat management at power plants and water conservation issues using a global TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 80-91.
    11. Ahmad, Shakeel & Jia, Haifeng & Chen, Zhengxia & Li, Qian & Xu, Changqing, 2020. "Water-energy nexus and energy efficiency: A systematic analysis of urban water systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. J. Micha Steinhäuser & Klaus Eisenack, 2015. "Spatial incidence of large-scale power plant curtailment costs," Working Papers V-379-15, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    13. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.
    15. John Foster & William Paul Bell & Craig Froome & Phil Wild & Liam Wagner & Deepak Sharma & Suwin Sandu & Suchi Misra & Ravindra Bagia, 2012. "Institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2012, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Zhu, Jiang & Xia, Bo, 2016. "Multi-fractal fluctuation features of thermal power coal price in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 10-18.
    17. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    18. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Dowling, Paul, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 531-538.
    19. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    20. Hagen Koch & Stefan Vögele & Michael Kaltofen & Uwe Grünewald, 2012. "Trends in water demand and water availability for power plants—scenario analyses for the German capital Berlin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 879-899, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:49:y:2013:i:c:p:193-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.