IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v19y2014i7p1091-1107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of climate variability in the Manas River Valley, North-Western China (1956–2006)

Author

Listed:
  • Fenghua Zhang
  • Munir Hanjra
  • Fan Hua
  • Yunqiao Shu
  • Yuyi Li

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run climate variability (change in the levels of temperature and precipitation) with a focus on the Manas River Valley, North-Western China, over the past 50 years (1956 to 2006) using data collected from four meteorological stations. The results show that the annual mean temperature had a positive trend, with temperature increasing at 0.4 °C per decade. Application of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that the overall positive trend became statistically significant at the p = 0.95 level only after 1988. The increase in temperature was most marked in winter and spring (0.8 and 0.7 °C per decade, respectively), absent in summer and very small in autumn (0.1 °C per decade). Concerning precipitation, our results indicate a negative but not significant trend for the period between 1956 and 1982, while annual total precipitation tended to increase thereafter and the increase was mainly during the crop growing-season. Concerning variability in temperature and precipitation, the characteristic time scales were identified by application of wavelet analysis. For temperature the quasi-decadal variations were found on time scales between approximately 5 and 15 years, with a peak in wavelet variance on a time scale of 9 years. For precipitation, the most striking features were a precipitation increase (6.7 mm per decade) during the crop growing season. Irregularities and abrupt changes in both temperature and precipitation were more common at scales less than 10 years, indicating the complexity and uncertainty in the short-period climate variability. Possible causes of climate variability in the Manas River Valley may include anthropogenic factors such as intensive human activity and the expansion of both farmland and irrigation. Global climate variability might also have some impacts on the local climate variability; analyses of local and regional climate trends can better inform local adaptation actions for global impacts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Fenghua Zhang & Munir Hanjra & Fan Hua & Yunqiao Shu & Yuyi Li, 2014. "Analysis of climate variability in the Manas River Valley, North-Western China (1956–2006)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(7), pages 1091-1107, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:7:p:1091-1107
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9462-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11027-013-9462-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-013-9462-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Baer & James Risbey, 2009. "Uncertainty and assessment of the issues posed by urgent climate change. An editorial comment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 31-36, January.
    2. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
    3. Harmsen, Eric W. & Miller, Norman L. & Schlegel, Nicole J. & Gonzalez, J.E., 2009. "Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 1085-1095, July.
    4. Xiang-ling Tang & Li-Ping Xu & Zheng-Yong Zhang & Xin Lv, 2013. "Effects of glacier melting on socioeconomic development in the Manas River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 533-544, March.
    5. Fang, Q. & Ma, L. & Yu, Q. & Ahuja, L.R. & Malone, R.W. & Hoogenboom, G., 2010. "Irrigation strategies to improve the water use efficiency of wheat-maize double cropping systems in North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1165-1174, August.
    6. Xu, Hailiang & Ye, Mao & Li, Jimei, 2008. "The water transfer effects on agricultural development in the lower Tarim River, Xinjiang of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 59-68, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haichang Yang & Fenghua Zhang & Yun Chen & Tingbao Xu & Zhibo Cheng & Jing Liang, 2016. "Assessment of Reclamation Treatments of Abandoned Farmland in an Arid Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-13, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pezzey, John C.V. & Burke, Paul J., 2014. "Towards a more inclusive and precautionary indicator of global sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 141-154.
    2. Zhao, Nana & Liu, Yu & Cai, Jiabing & Paredes, Paula & Rosa, Ricardo D. & Pereira, Luis S., 2013. "Dual crop coefficient modelling applied to the winter wheat–summer maize crop sequence in North China Plain: Basal crop coefficients and soil evaporation component," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 93-105.
    3. Attia, Ahmed & El-Hendawy, Salah & Al-Suhaibani, Nasser & Alotaibi, Majed & Tahir, Muhammad Usman & Kamal, Khaled Y., 2021. "Evaluating deficit irrigation scheduling strategies to improve yield and water productivity of maize in arid environment using simulation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    4. Heagle, A.L.B. & Naterer, G.F. & Pope, K., 2011. "Small wind turbine energy policies for residential and small business usage in Ontario, Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1988-1999, April.
    5. Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    6. Fang, Q.X. & Ma, L. & Green, T.R. & Yu, Q. & Wang, T.D. & Ahuja, L.R., 2010. "Water resources and water use efficiency in the North China Plain: Current status and agronomic management options," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1102-1116, August.
    7. Aouissi, Jalel & Benabdallah, Sihem & Lili Chabaâne, Zohra & Cudennec, Christophe, 2016. "Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration assessment methods for hydrological modelling with SWAT—Application in data-scarce rural Tunisia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 39-51.
    8. Singh, Ajay & Krause, Peter & Panda, Sudhindra N. & Flugel, Wolfgang-Albert, 2010. "Rising water table: A threat to sustainable agriculture in an irrigated semi-arid region of Haryana, India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1443-1451, October.
    9. Zhang, Chao & Liu, Jiangui & Shang, Jiali & Dong, Taifeng & Tang, Min & Feng, Shaoyuan & Cai, Huanjie, 2021. "Improving winter wheat biomass and evapotranspiration simulation by assimilating leaf area index from spectral information into a crop growth model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Xiyi Wang & Shuzhen Peng & Hongbo Ling & Hailiang Xu & Tingting Ma, 2019. "Do Ecosystem Service Value Increase and Environmental Quality Improve due to Large–Scale Ecological Water Conveyance in an Arid Region of China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Dokoohaki, Hamze & Gheysari, Mahdi & Mousavi, Sayed-Farhad & Zand-Parsa, Shahrokh & Miguez, Fernando E. & Archontoulis, Sotirios V. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Coupling and testing a new soil water module in DSSAT CERES-Maize model for maize production under semi-arid condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 90-99.
    12. Tianyi Yang & Haichao Yu & Sien Li & Xiangning Yuan & Xiang Ao & Haochong Chen & Yuexin Wang & Jie Ding, 2024. "Driving Factors and Numerical Simulation of Evapotranspiration of a Typical Cabbage Agroecosystem in the Shiyang River Basin, Northwest China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    13. Silva, Vicente de P.R. & Campos, João H.B.C. & Silva, Madson T. & Azevedo, Pedro V., 2010. "Impact of global warming on cowpea bean cultivation in northeastern Brazil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1760-1768, November.
    14. Yu, Yang & Yu, Ruide & Chen, Xi & Yu, Guoan & Gan, Miao & Disse, Markus, 2017. "Agricultural water allocation strategies along the oasis of Tarim River in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 24-36.
    15. Zhang, Jing & Zhang, Huihui & Sima, Matthew W. & Trout, Thomas J. & Malone, Rob W. & Wang, Li, 2021. "Simulated deficit irrigation and climate change effects on sunflower production in Eastern Colorado with CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower in RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    16. Liu, S. & Yang, J.Y. & Zhang, X.Y. & Drury, C.F. & Reynolds, W.D. & Hoogenboom, G., 2013. "Modelling crop yield, soil water content and soil temperature for a soybean–maize rotation under conventional and conservation tillage systems in Northeast China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 32-44.
    17. Hertzog, Thomas & Poussin, Jean-Christophe & Tangara, Bréhima & Kouriba, Indé & Jamin, Jean-Yves, 2014. "A role playing game to address future water management issues in a large irrigated system: Experience from Mali," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-14.
    18. Li, Chunxia & Li, Youjun & Fu, Guozhan & Huang, Ming & Ma, Chao & Wang, Hezheng & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Cultivation and mulching materials strategies to enhance soil water status, net ecosystem and crop water productivity of winter wheat in semi-humid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    19. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
    20. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & van Velthuizen, Harrij & Liang, Zhuoran, 2017. "Mission Impossible? Maintaining regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table by cropping system adaptation across the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1-12.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:19:y:2014:i:7:p:1091-1107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.