Spatio-temporal dynamics of wildfires in Hoshangabad Forest Division of Central India: a geospatial and statistical investigation

Wildfire events are very prevalent in the central Indian region, resulting in the loss of forest cover, biodiversity, property assets, and human lives. The present study analyses the spatio-temporal patterns of wildfires in an ecologically rich Hoshangabad Forest Division within the central Indian region over the past 22 years, from 2001 to 2022. The analysis used Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) to quantify the burnt area by using Landsat data and Mann Kendal & Sen slope tests on MODIS fire point data to evaluate the trend and magnitude of wildfire events. The findings reveal an increasing tendency of wildfire events and burned areas. The annual average burnt area rate was found to be 14.29 sq. km per year, and the Fire Radiative Power value of fire points (MODIS) showed an escalation in trend with an annual average rate of 26.82 mw unit per year, indicating a surge in fire intensity. The affected regions are primarily situated in the eastern, northern, and central parts of the forest division, mainly dominated by teak and degraded forest types. About 29% area of the forest division has burned two to five times, indicating wildfires occur in a larger area with a recurrent nature. Furthermore, proximity regression analysis revealed a strong negative association of distance from roads (R2 = 0.91) and agricultural land (R2 = 0.91) with fire incidents. In comparison, settlements (R2 = 0.44) represent a weak negative association. A similar pattern was observed with the burned area. These findings contribute several valuable insights into wildfire behaviour and quantification of burnt areaFs for targeted fire management strategies, plans, policies, and further research.