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A uniformisation-driven algorithm for inference-related estimation of a phase-type ageing model

Author

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  • Boquan Cheng

    (The University of Western Ontario)

  • Rogemar Mamon

    (The University of Western Ontario
    University of the Philippines Visayas)

Abstract

We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the likelihood of the phase-type ageing model. The proposed algorithm uses the uniformisation method to stabilise the numerical calculation. It also utilises a vectorised formula to only calculate the necessary elements of the probability distribution. Our algorithm, with an error’s upper bound, could be adjusted easily to tackle the likelihood calculation of the Coxian models. Furthermore, we compare the speed and the accuracy of the proposed algorithm with those of the traditional method using the matrix exponential. Our algorithm is faster and more accurate than the traditional method in calculating the likelihood. Based on our experiments, we recommend using 20 sets of randomly-generated initial values for the optimisation to get a reliable estimate for which the evaluated likelihood is close to the maximum likelihood.

Suggested Citation

  • Boquan Cheng & Rogemar Mamon, 2023. "A uniformisation-driven algorithm for inference-related estimation of a phase-type ageing model," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 142-187, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:29:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10985-022-09577-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10985-022-09577-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adele H. Marshall & Mariangela Zenga, 2012. "Experimenting with the Coxian Phase-Type Distribution to Uncover Suitable Fits," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 71-86, March.
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    3. Søren Asmussen & Patrick J. Laub & Hailiang Yang, 2019. "Phase-Type Models in Life Insurance: Fitting and Valuation of Equity-Linked Benefits," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, February.
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    6. X. Lin & Xiaoming Liu, 2007. "Markov Aging Process and Phase-Type Law of Mortality," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 92-109.
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