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The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies

Author

Listed:
  • Petraq Milo

    (Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of Albania Member of the Supervisory Board of the Bank of Albania)

Abstract

This article investigates the causal linkage between budget deficit, monetary mass and inflation in the transition economies. It is focused on the impact of public expenditures growth on money supply growth, and it does not take in account the amount of budget deficit. We test the new hypothesis that inflation is primarily attributable to public finances imbalances. In our model, the money supply growth is function of budget deficit and GDP growth rate; and inflation is a function of money supply growth and budget deficits. We find a positive relationship between monetary financing of government deficits and money base growth in the case of Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania; public finance imbalances are the main cause of money creation and inflation in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Petraq Milo, 2012. "The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 25-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:25-57
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol1no1-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2014. "Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2014.
    2. M. R. Anantha Ramu & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.
    4. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.
    5. Osman Sayid Hassan Musse & Abdelghani Echchabi & Hassanuddeen Abdul Aziz, 2015. "Fractional Reserve Banking and Price Stability: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(3), pages 101-105, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public finance; Budget deficit; Exchange rate; Inflation; Transition economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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