IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cbk/journl/v1y2012i1p25-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies

Author

Listed:
  • Petraq Milo

    (Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of Albania Member of the Supervisory Board of the Bank of Albania)

Abstract

This article investigates the causal linkage between budget deficit, monetary mass and inflation in the transition economies. It is focused on the impact of public expenditures growth on money supply growth, and it does not take in account the amount of budget deficit. We test the new hypothesis that inflation is primarily attributable to public finances imbalances. In our model, the money supply growth is function of budget deficit and GDP growth rate; and inflation is a function of money supply growth and budget deficits. We find a positive relationship between monetary financing of government deficits and money base growth in the case of Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania; public finance imbalances are the main cause of money creation and inflation in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Petraq Milo, 2012. "The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 25-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:25-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol1no1-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blejer, Mario I. & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1988. "High inflation, heterodox stabilization, and fiscal policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 867-881, August.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
    4. Willem H. Buiter, 1990. "Principles of Budgetary and Financial Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524139, April.
    5. Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
    6. Giannaros, Demetrios S. & Kolluri, Bharat R., 1985. "Deficit spending, money, and inflation: Some international empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 401-417.
    7. Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 527-549, September.
    8. Vito Tanzi, 1993. "The Budget Deficit in Transition: A Cautionary Note," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 697-707, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. R. Anantha Ramu & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2014. "Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2014.
    3. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.
    4. Osman Sayid Hassan Musse & Abdelghani Echchabi & Hassanuddeen Abdul Aziz, 2015. "Fractional Reserve Banking and Price Stability: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(3), pages 101-105, August.
    5. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rexhep Dokja, 2013. "Do Budget Deficits Cause Inflation? Evidence from Albania," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 2, October.
    2. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Buiter, Willem H., 2007. "Seigniorage," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-49.
    4. Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Inflation and stabilization in Yugoslavia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 752, The World Bank.
    5. Sulo Haderi & Harry Papapanagos & Peter Sanfey & Mirela Talka, 1999. "Inflation and Stabilisation in Albania," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 127-141.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    7. Bandiera, Luca & Budina, Nina & Klijn, Michel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "The"how to"of fiscal sustainability : a technical manual for using the fiscal sustainability tool," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4170, The World Bank.
    8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Stabilization programs in Eastern Europe : a comparative analysis of the Polish and Yugoslav programs of 1990," Policy Research Working Paper Series 732, The World Bank.
    9. Easterly, William R & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 583-603, May.
    10. Mohammad Mahabub Alam, 2018. "The Determinants of CPI Inflation in Bangladesh, 1980-2016," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 441-461, December.
    11. Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4169, The World Bank.
    12. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April.
    13. Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Burkett, Paul, 1996. "Hyperinflation, the exchange rate and endogenous money: post-World War I Germany revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 599-621, August.
    14. ROBERTO DE REZENDE Rocha, 1992. "Inflation And Stabilization In Yugoslavia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 10(4), pages 21-38, October.
    15. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Petrovic, Pavle & Bogetic, Zeljko & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1999. "The Yugoslav Hyperinflation of 1992-1994: Causes, Dynamics, and Money Supply Process," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 335-353, June.
    17. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Federal domestic debt in Brazil: 1981-1996," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td128, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    18. Roque B. Fernández, 1991. "What Have Populists Learned from Hyperinflation?," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 121-149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public finance; Budget deficit; Exchange rate; Inflation; Transition economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:25-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmgvme.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.