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Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes

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  • Francisco Gallego

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • Jeanne Lafortune

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Abstract

This paper uses international commodity prices and local natural resource endowments as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in local Chilean economic conditions to study how these shocks impact fertility behavior of families in a small, emerging open economy where non-marital fertility is common but parental obligations are not well enforced. We find that these commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate. We argue that these results are consistent with most women experiencing an income effect and a limited substitution effect from commodity booms. This is confirmed by looking at groups that would have experienced a larger income than substitution effect: higher-order births, births within marital relationships, and those by mothers who do not experience an increase in their employment probability respond more strongly to these commodity booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune, 2023. "Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 295-320, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:36:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00855-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00855-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Commodity booms; Cyclicality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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