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The impact of personal beliefs on climate change: the “battle of perspectives” revisited

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  • Sylvie Geisendorf

    (ESCP Europe Berlin)

Abstract

The paper proposes a multi-agent climate-economic model, the “battle of perspectives 2.0”. It is an updated and improved version of the original “battle of perspectives” model, described in Janssen (1996) and Janssen/de Vries (1998). The model integrates agents with differing beliefs about economic growth and the sensitivity of the climate system and places them in environments corresponding or non-corresponding to their beliefs. In a second step, different agent types are ruling the world conjointly. Using a learning procedure based on some operators known from Genetic Algorithms, the model shows how they adapt wrong beliefs over time. It is thus an evolutionary model of climate protection decisions. The paper argues that such models may help in analyzing why cost-minimizing protection paths, derived from integrated assessment models à la Nordhaus/Sztorc (2013), are not followed. Although this view is supported by numerous authors, few such models exist. With the “battle of perspectives 2.0” the paper offers a contribution to their development. Compared to the former version, more agent types are considered and more aspects have been endogenized.

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  • Sylvie Geisendorf, 2016. "The impact of personal beliefs on climate change: the “battle of perspectives” revisited," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 551-580, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:26:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s00191-016-0461-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-016-0461-9
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    2. Khraisha, Tamer, 2020. "Complex economic problems and fitness landscapes: Assessment and methodological perspectives," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 390-407.
    3. Drews, Stefan & Savin, Ivan & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2019. "Opinion Clusters in Academic and Public Debates on Growth-vs-Environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-155.
    4. Sordi, Serena & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2023. "The green-MKS system: A baseline environmental macro-dynamic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1056-1085.
    5. Rabaa, Simon & Geisendorf, Sylvie & Wilken, Robert, 2022. "Why change does (not) happen: Understanding and overcoming status quo biases in climate change mitigation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 100-134.
    6. Sylvie Geisendorf & Christian Klippert, 2022. "Integrated sustainability policy assessment – an agent-based ecological-economic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1017-1048, July.
    7. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Daumas, Louis & Miess, Michael Gregor & Yardley, Andrew, 2023. "Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 535-567.
    8. Juana Castro & Stefan Drews & Filippos Exadaktylos & Joël Foramitti & Franziska Klein & Théo Konc & Ivan Savin & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2020. "A review of agent‐based modeling of climate‐energy policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.

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