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The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Alonso-Ortiz

    (ITAM)

  • Esteban Colla

    (Universidad Panamericana)

  • José-María Da-Rocha

    (ITAM
    Universidade de Vigo)

Abstract

We calibrate the cost of sovereign defaults using a continuous time model, where government default decisions may trigger a change in the regime of a stochastic TFP process. We calibrate the model to a sample of European countries from 2009 to 2012. By comparing the estimated drift in default relative to that in no-default, we find that TFP falls in the range of 3.70–5.88 %. The model is consistent with observed falls in GDP growth rates and subsequent recoveries and illustrates why fiscal multipliers are small during sovereign debt crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Alonso-Ortiz & Esteban Colla & José-María Da-Rocha, 2017. "The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 611-633, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-015-0939-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-015-0939-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago Garcia-Verdu, 2018. "On the role of financial aid in a default episode," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Cristina Arellano & Timothy J. Kehoe & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2017. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Models of Debt and Debt Crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 605-610, December.
    3. Sergey Pekarski & Anna Sokolova, 2021. "Default Costs and Self-fulfilling Fiscal Limits in a Small Open Economy," HSE Working papers WP BRP 243/EC/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default; Sovereign debt; Financial markets; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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