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Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?

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  • Juan Carlos Conesa
  • Timothy J. Kehoe

Abstract

In January 1995, US President Bill Clinton organized a bailout for Mexico that imposed penalty interest rates and induced the Mexican government to reduce its debt, ending the debt crisis. Can the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund) organize similar bailouts for the troubled countries in the eurozone? Our analysis suggests that debt levels are so high that bailouts with penalty interest rates could induce the eurozone governments to default rather than reduce their debt. A resumption of economic growth is one of the few ways that the eurozone crises can end.

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  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2014. "Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 88-93, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:88-93
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.88
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    2. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alonso-Ortiz & Esteban Colla & José-María Da-Rocha, 2017. "The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 611-633, December.
    2. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon & Rafael Santos, 2017. "Bargained haircuts and debt policy implications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 635-656, December.
    3. Roch, Francisco & Uhlig, Harald, 2018. "The dynamics of sovereign debt crises and bailouts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Stavros A. Zenios & Andrea Consiglio & Marialena Athanasopoulou & Edmund Moshammer & Angel Gavilan & Aitor Erce, 2021. "Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 755-773, May.
    5. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    6. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Maeng, Seung Hyun, 2020. "Debt Crises, Fast and Slow," CEPR Discussion Papers 14868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Daniel Levy & Tamir Mayer & Alon Raviv, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," Working Papers 2020-01, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    9. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    10. Pásztor, Szabolcs, 2017. "Mozaikok Európa újraegyesüléséhez - az amerikai külpolitika és az európai multinacionális vállalatok szerepe. Berend T. Iván: The History of European Integration - A new perspective. Routledge, New Yo," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 208-212.
    11. Giancarlo Corsetti, 2023. "Debt crises, fast and slow Giancarlo," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/15, European University Institute.
    12. Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Cordoba & Pau Pujolas & Jose Torres, 2017. "Fiscal Discipline and Defaults," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 1-13, March.
    13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2024. "Preemptive austerity with rollover risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Stangebye, Zachary R., 2020. "Beliefs and long-maturity sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Cassola, Nuno & Jorge, José, 2016. "The ECB's OMTs: A tale of governments, investors, and the central bank," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 94-116.
    17. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    18. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    19. Marialena Athanasopoulou & Andrea Consiglio & Aitor Erce & Angel Gavilan & Edmund Moshammer & Stavros A. Zenios, 2019. "Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Gabriel Desgranges & Ms. Celine Rochon, 2014. "Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default," IMF Working Papers 2014/168, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Zachary Stangebye, 2023. "Long-Term Sovereign Debt: A Steady State Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 107-131, April.
    22. Giancarlo Corsetti & Seung Hyun Maeng, 2023. "The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited," RSCAS Working Papers 2013_53, European University Institute.
    23. Vitor Gaspar, 2014. "The Making of a Continental Financial System: Lessons for Europe from Early American History," IMF Working Papers 2014/183, International Monetary Fund.
    24. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2016. "Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation: A Macroeconomic View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2458-2493, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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