The Creative Development of Fields: Learning, Creativity, Paths, Implications

I present a model of the creative development of a field and analysis of the model based on an extensive set of simulations. A field as defined here is a domain for human activity and engagement, including for example standard academic fields as well as practical fields like law, medicine, design, and fields of technology. In the model in this paper, the field is defined in terms of the body of knowledge and elements or products that have been created in the field up to that point. The field begins from an initial state and grows as individuals enter the field and make new contributions; its basic structure resembles a lattice. New elements are created via combining preexisting elements, based on specific rules for combinations; thus I follow much of the creativity literature in defining creativity as creating novel conceptual combinations. The heart of the model is a rational, optimizing model of individual creative development, in which individuals have as their aim maximizing the expected value of their contribution to the field. An individual selects an initial set of elements in the field to learn, then gains intuitive signals about potentially fruitful new combinations based on this learning set, selects additional elements to learn, and finally chooses a potential new element to attempt to make. If the element is viable, it is added to the field, together with any subbundle elements co-created with it. The simulation analysis reveals a rich set of empirical predictions about the development of fields through this process. A first striking find is the diversity of possible paths of development starting from a given initial state. The intuitive signals individuals receive are an important factor in generating this diversity, as signals lead individuals to attempt to make elements they might otherwise not pursue, thus shaping the development of the field in important ways. The results also reveal a high degree of path dependence, generated as individuals build on the work of their predecessors, and interesting temporal patterns for how output in one period is linked with what occurred in the previous period.