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How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?

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  • Andrew Huff
  • Walter Beyeler
  • Nicholas Kelley
  • Joseph McNitt

Abstract

Rarely have studies focused on the second- and third-order effects of pandemics. Limiting the disruption of critical infrastructures during a pandemic is important for the survival and health of society (i.e., electricity, water, and food) as most medical and public health responses to a pandemic depend on these infrastructures. The studies that have looked at this issue have highlighted alarming gaps in preparedness. This study used a system dynamics model to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on the USA’s food system. The model reveals that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25 % reduction in labor availability can create significant and widespread food shortages. The Ebola epidemic that began in 2014 has caused severe food shortages in West Africa, which are similar to the effects that this model predicts in the USA. The likely effects of the reduction in the amount of available food are difficult to specifically predict; however, it is likely to have severe negative consequences on society. The resilience of the food system must be improved against this hazard and others. Copyright AESS 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Huff & Walter Beyeler & Nicholas Kelley & Joseph McNitt, 2015. "How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 337-347, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jenvss:v:5:y:2015:i:3:p:337-347
    DOI: 10.1007/s13412-015-0275-3
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    5. Ana Esteso & M. M. E. Alemany & Fernando Ottati & Ángel Ortiz, 2023. "System dynamics model for improving the robustness of a fresh agri-food supply chain to disruptions," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1-53, June.
    6. Kumar, Anish & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Kumar, Pradeep & Song, Malin, 2021. "Mitigate risks in perishable food supply chains: Learning from COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
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    8. Gerald Marten & Nurcan Atalan-Helicke, 2015. "Introduction to the Symposium on American Food Resilience (Part 2)," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 537-542, December.
    9. Taiyang Zhong & Jonathan Crush & Zhenzhong Si & Steffanie Scott, 2022. "Emergency food supplies and food security in Wuhan and Nanjing, China, during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from a field survey," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
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    13. Balkan, Büsra Atamer & Lindqvist, Andreas Nicolaidis & Odoemena, Kelechi & Lamb, Robert & Tiongco, Monique Ann & Gupta, Stueti & Peteru, Arpitha & Menendez III, Hector Manuel, 2021. "Understanding the Impact of COVID-19 on Agriculture and Food Supply Chains: System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience of Smallholder Farmers," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
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