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How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?

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  • Andrew Huff
  • Walter Beyeler
  • Nicholas Kelley
  • Joseph McNitt

Abstract

Rarely have studies focused on the second- and third-order effects of pandemics. Limiting the disruption of critical infrastructures during a pandemic is important for the survival and health of society (i.e., electricity, water, and food) as most medical and public health responses to a pandemic depend on these infrastructures. The studies that have looked at this issue have highlighted alarming gaps in preparedness. This study used a system dynamics model to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on the USA’s food system. The model reveals that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25 % reduction in labor availability can create significant and widespread food shortages. The Ebola epidemic that began in 2014 has caused severe food shortages in West Africa, which are similar to the effects that this model predicts in the USA. The likely effects of the reduction in the amount of available food are difficult to specifically predict; however, it is likely to have severe negative consequences on society. The resilience of the food system must be improved against this hazard and others. Copyright AESS 2015

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  • Andrew Huff & Walter Beyeler & Nicholas Kelley & Joseph McNitt, 2015. "How resilient is the United States’ food system to pandemics?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 337-347, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jenvss:v:5:y:2015:i:3:p:337-347
    DOI: 10.1007/s13412-015-0275-3
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    2. Kumar, Anish & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Kumar, Pradeep & Song, Malin, 2021. "Mitigate risks in perishable food supply chains: Learning from COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Busch, Gesa & Bayer, Elisa & Gunarathne, Anoma & Hölker, Sarah & Iweala, Sarah & Jürkenbeck, Kristin & Lemken, Dominic & Mehlhose, Clara & Ohlau, Marlene & Risius, Antje & Rubach, Constanze & Schütz, , 2020. "Einkaufs- und Ernährungsverhalten sowie Resilienz des Ernährungssystems aus Sicht der Bevölkerung: Ergebnisse einer Studie während der Corona-Pandemie im April 2020," DARE Discussion Papers 2003, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    4. Gerald Marten & Nurcan Atalan-Helicke, 2015. "Introduction to the Symposium on American Food Resilience (Part 2)," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 537-542, December.
    5. Taiyang Zhong & Jonathan Crush & Zhenzhong Si & Steffanie Scott, 2022. "Emergency food supplies and food security in Wuhan and Nanjing, China, during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from a field survey," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
    6. Alba J. Collart & Elizabeth Canales, 2022. "How might broad adoption of blockchain‐based traceability impact the U.S. fresh produce supply chain?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 219-236, March.
    7. Song, Shuang & Goh, Jenson C.L. & Tan, Hugh T.W., 2021. "Is food security an illusion for cities? A system dynamics approach to assess disturbance in the urban food supply chain during pandemics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Dumitraşcu Luminița-Mihaela, 2021. "Comparative study of front-of-pack nutrition labels at global level, a social responsibility issue," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 1135-1149, December.
    9. Clark, Jill K. & Conley, Brian & Raja, Samina, 2021. "Essential, fragile, and invisible community food infrastructure: The role of urban governments in the United States," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Jody Harris & Lutz Depenbusch & Arshad Ahmad Pal & Ramakrishnan Madhavan Nair & Srinivasan Ramasamy, 2020. "Food system disruption: initial livelihood and dietary effects of COVID-19 on vegetable producers in India," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 841-851, August.
    11. Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Kaisar, Shahriar & Moktadir, Md. Abdul, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic related supply chain studies: A systematic review," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Feuerbacher, Arndt & McDonald, Scott & Thierfelder, Karen, 2020. "Peasant Households and Pandemic Viral Diseases," MPRA Paper 100867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Balkan, Büsra Atamer & Lindqvist, Andreas Nicolaidis & Odoemena, Kelechi & Lamb, Robert & Tiongco, Monique Ann & Gupta, Stueti & Peteru, Arpitha & Menendez III, Hector Manuel, 2021. "Understanding the Impact of COVID-19 on Agriculture and Food Supply Chains: System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience of Smallholder Farmers," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    14. Seth D. Baum, 2023. "Assessing natural global catastrophic risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2699-2719, February.

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