Who suffered most in the pandemic? A distribution regression analysis of happiness in Japan

While many studies report the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health and subjective well-being, less known is who suffered most. This study provides a more detailed assessment of the pandemic’s effect on happiness than existing studies. Specifically, we use data from a unique online survey conducted in Japan in 2019 and 2021 and compare individuals’ over-time change in happiness by their socioeconomic characteristics and by the level of happiness, leveraging multiple regression and distribution regression (DR) frameworks. The results reveal considerable heterogeneity in the pandemic’s effects. The size of the overall pandemic effect on women’s happiness is nearly double that of men’s. The DR analysis reveals that the pandemic predominantly affected individuals with moderate happiness levels; hence, the range of happiness levels in the population was not significantly widened or narrowed. Individuals’ socioeconomic characteristics played essential roles in determining the effect size. Specifically, the pandemic’s effect was less pronounced among female students and single women with higher earnings who were self-employed or freelancers. In contrast, married men in full-time employment with higher earnings experienced a more severe impact. We find no significant roles in education and age.