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Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Yvette Harman
  • Thomas Zuehlke

Abstract

Prior research has employed a number of methods to test for speculative bubbles in asset prices, including a method based on the concept of duration dependence. This study explores whether duration dependence tests for speculative bubbles are sensitive to specification decisions. Our results question the efficacy of using measures of duration dependence to test for speculative bubbles. In particular, we find that evidence of duration dependence is sensitive to the method of correcting for discrete observation of continuous duration, the use of value-weighted versus equally weighted portfolios, and the use of monthly versus weekly runs of abnormal returns. (JEL C41, G12) Copyright Springer 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Yvette Harman & Thomas Zuehlke, 2004. "Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 147-154, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:147-154
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02761607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary M. Fournier & Thomas W. Zuehlke, 1996. "The Timing of Out-of-Court Settlements," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(2), pages 310-321, Summer.
    2. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    3. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-636, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    2. Alberto Madrid & Luis A. Hierro, 2015. "Burbujas especulativas: el estado de una cuestión poco estudiada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 123-138, Septiembr.
    3. KIRKPINAR, Aysegul & ERER, Elif & ERER, Deniz, 2019. "Is There A Rational Bubble In Bist 100 And Sector Indices?," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(3), pages 21-33, September.
    4. Qing He & Zongxin Qian & Zhe Fei & Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2019. "Do speculative bubbles migrate in the Chinese stock market?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 735-754, February.
    5. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "Testing the hypothesis of duration dependence in the U.S. housing market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    6. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:pra:mprapa:37980 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Oglend, Atle & Selland Kleppe, Tore, 2016. "How regular are directional movements in commodity and asset prices? A Wald test," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 290-306.
    10. Gilbert V. Nartea & Muhammad A. Cheema & Kenneth R. Szulczyk, 2017. "Searching for rational bubble footprints in the Singaporean and Indonesian stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(3), pages 529-552, July.
    11. Sanaz Behzadi & Mahmonir Bayanati & Hamed Nozari, 2023. "Multiple-bubble testing in the cryptocurrency market: a case study of bitcoin," Papers 2401.05417, arXiv.org.
    12. Ky-Hyang Yuhn & Sang Bong Kim & Joo Ha Nam, 2015. "Bubbles and the Weibull distribution: was there an explosive bubble in US stock prices before the global economic crisis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 255-271, January.
    13. Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2014. "Applying Approximate Entropy (ApEn) to Speculative Bubble in the Stock Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 13(1), pages 43-68, April.
    14. Asako, Kazumi & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "A statistical model of speculative bubbles, with applications to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2639-2651.
    15. Lehkonen, Heikki, 2010. "Bubbles in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 113-117, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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