IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v91y2017icp41-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The volatility of exchange rates and the non-normality of stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Blau, Benjamin M.

Abstract

In this study, we examine how exchange rate volatility in a particular country influences both the kurtosis and skewness of stock returns. In a variety of tests that hold constant the structure of the financial market, we show that exchange rate volatility is associated with greater kurtosis, and more negative skewness. We use the out-of-sample implementation of the Euro as an identification strategy in order to make stronger causal inferences. The implementation of the Euro created stability in exchange rates not only in the Euro Region but also in other parts of the world. We find some evidence that the adoption of the Euro decreased the level of kurtosis and increased the skewness of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "The volatility of exchange rates and the non-normality of stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 41-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:91:y:2017:i:c:p:41-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.03.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619517300814
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.03.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    2. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
    3. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    4. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    5. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    6. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    8. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    11. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
    12. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Lee, Insup, 1996. "Market Segmentation and the Valuation of Closed-End Country Funds: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, July.
    13. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    14. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218.
    15. Zapatero, Fernando, 1995. "Equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 787-811, May.
    16. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 379-401, September.
    17. Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, June.
    18. Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
    19. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    20. Jianguo Xu, 2007. "Price Convexity and Skewness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2521-2552, October.
    21. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-636, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renan O. Regis & Raydonal Ospina & Wilton Bernardino & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2023. "Asset pricing in the Brazilian financial market: five-factor GAMLSS modeling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2373-2409, May.
    2. Farah Durani, 2024. "Time-varying Relationship between Fossil Fuel-Free Energy Indices and Economic Uncertainty: Global Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 663-672, January.
    3. Jaratin Lily & Imbarine Bujang & Abdul Aziz Karia & Mori Kogid, 2018. "Exchange rate exposure revisited in Malaysia: a tale of two measures," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(4), pages 409-435, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Lynch, Margaret, 2008. "Volume and skewness in international equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1255-1268, July.
    2. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    3. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    4. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Can Real Options Explain the Skewness of Stock Returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "Economic freedom and crashes in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 33-46.
    6. Benjamin M. Blau & Bret D. Crane, 2021. "Religiosity and loss aversion: Does local religiosity influence the skewness of stock returns?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 478-496, June.
    7. Rao, Lanlan & Zhou, Liyun, 2019. "Crash risk, institutional investors and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    9. Battaglia, Francesca & Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella, 2021. "Securitization and crash risk: Evidence from large European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Yao, Yi & Yang, Rong & Liu, Zhiyuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2013. "Government intervention and institutional trading strategy: Evidence from a transition country," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 44-68.
    11. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    12. Yu, Haixu & Liang, Chuanyu & Liu, Zhaohua & Wang, He, 2023. "News-based ESG sentiment and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    14. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Jang, Jeewon, 2017. "Stock return anomalies and individual investors in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 141-157.
    16. Chris Florackis & Christodoulos Louca & Roni Michaely & Michael Weber & Itay Goldstein, 2023. "Cybersecurity Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(1), pages 351-407.
    17. Yao, Jing & Zheng, Zexin, 2021. "Costly arbitrage and skewness pricing: Evidence from first-day price limit reform in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Wen, Fenghua & Xu, Longhao & Ouyang, Guangda & Kou, Gang, 2019. "Retail investor attention and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Cao, Xu & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan, 2019. "Do idiosyncratic skewness and kurtosis really matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Liquidity and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:91:y:2017:i:c:p:41-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.