IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jcsosc/v4y2021i1d10.1007_s42001-020-00071-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting regime shifts in social systems modelled with agent-based methods

Author

Listed:
  • Manfred Füllsack

    (University of Graz)

  • Simon Plakolb

    (University of Graz)

  • Georg Jäger

    (University of Graz)

Abstract

We investigate the possibility to apply a method of calculus analytics developed for predicting critical transitions in complex systems to social systems modelled with agent-based methods (ABMs). We introduce this method on the example of an equation-based modelled system and subsequently test it—to our knowledge for the first time—on ABMs. Our experiments show that the method may have wide applicability in the analysis of social systems. The method can help to approximate abrupt and thus unpredictable regime shifts, even though it may be constrained by stochastics and require a bit more experimentation in selecting suitable variables for making it work in ABMs.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfred Füllsack & Simon Plakolb & Georg Jäger, 2021. "Predicting regime shifts in social systems modelled with agent-based methods," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 163-185, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:4:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-020-00071-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s42001-020-00071-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s42001-020-00071-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s42001-020-00071-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    3. Ledyard, John O., "undated". "Public Goods: A Survey of Experimental Research," Working Papers 861, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684boj041a440irqd is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ernst Fehr & Simon Gächter, 2002. "Altruistic punishment in humans," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6868), pages 137-140, January.
    6. Levy, Moshe, 2005. "Social phase transitions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 71-87, May.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    9. Siddharth Suri & Duncan J Watts, 2011. "Cooperation and Contagion in Web-Based, Networked Public Goods Experiments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Grabowski, A. & Kosiński, R.A., 2006. "Ising-based model of opinion formation in a complex network of interpersonal interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(2), pages 651-664.
    11. Simon Gachter & Ernst Fehr, 2000. "Cooperation and Punishment in Public Goods Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 980-994, September.
    12. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Juanxi Wang, 2019. "Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1201-1228, October.
    13. Marwell, Gerald & Ames, Ruth E., 1981. "Economists free ride, does anyone else? : Experiments on the provision of public goods, IV," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 295-310, June.
    14. Kiran D’Souza & Bogdan I Epureanu & Mercedes Pascual, 2015. "Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-620, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manfred Füllsack & Daniel Reisinger & Marie Kapeller & Georg Jäger, 2022. "Early warning signals from the periphery," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 665-685, May.
    2. Amado, André & Huang, Weini & Campos, Paulo R.A. & Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes, 2015. "Learning process in public goods games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 21-31.
    3. Cubitt, Robin P. & Drouvelis, Michalis & Gächter, Simon & Kabalin, Ruslan, 2011. "Moral judgments in social dilemmas: How bad is free riding?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 253-264.
    4. Zwick, Thomas, 1999. "Innovations induce asymmetric employment movements," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-24, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Tarui, Nori & Mason, Charles F. & Polasky, Stephen & Ellis, Greg, 2008. "Cooperation in the commons with unobservable actions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 37-51, January.
    6. Marianna Baggio & Luigi Mittone, 2016. "Experience and History: An Experimental Approach to Generational Heterogeneity," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, October.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5rtilga41c899ab0rctd3cp2r3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Willem H. Buiter, 1987. "The Right Combination of Demand and Supply Policies: The Case for a Two-Handed Approach," NBER Working Papers 2333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chaudhuri, Ananish & Maitra, Pushkar & Graziano, Sara, 2003. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Evolution of Conventions in a Public Goods Experiment with Intergenerational Advice," Working Papers 152, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
    10. Annarita Colasante & Andrea Morone & Francesco Nemore & Paola Tiranzoni, 2024. "Self‐love, growth, and competition in a public good game," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(4), pages 845-872, November.
    11. Sturm, Bodo & Riechmann, Thomas & Dannenberg, Astrid & Vogt, Carsten, 2007. "Inequity Aversion and Individual Behavior in Public Good Games: An Experimental Investigation," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-034 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Moller, Joachim, 1990. "Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital: A Labour Market Model with Hysteresis Implications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 199-215.
    13. Auerswald, Heike & Schmidt, Carsten & Thum, Marcel & Torsvik, Gaute, 2018. "Teams in a public goods experiment with punishment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-39.
    14. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    15. Koray Yıldırım & Neşe Algan & Harun Bal, 2024. "Investment Hysteresis: An Empirical Essay Turkish Case," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 143-176, February.
    16. Dutt, Amitava K. & Ros, Jaime, 2007. "Aggregate demand shocks and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-99, March.
    17. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Bassi, Federico & Bauermann, Tom & Lang, Dany & Setterfield, Mark, 2022. "Is capacity utilization variable in the long run? An agent-based sectoral approach to modeling hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 196-212.
    19. Antonio A. Arechar & Simon Gächter & Lucas Molleman, 2018. "Conducting interactive experiments online," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 99-131, March.
    20. Dosi, Giovanni & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Roventini, Andrea & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2018. "The labour-augmented K+S model: a laboratory for the analysis of institutional and policy regimes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 241, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    21. Gallo, Edoardo & Barak, Darija & Langtry, Alastair, 2023. "Social distancing in networks: A web-based interactive experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jcsosc:v:4:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s42001-020-00071-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.