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ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Valter Giacinto

    (Banca d’Italia, L’Aquila Branch)

  • Libero Monteforte

    (Banca d’Italia and Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio)

  • Andrea Filippone

    (Banca d’Italia, Ancona Branch)

  • Francesco Montaruli

    (Banca d’Italia, Rome Branch)

  • Tiziano Ropele

    (Banca d’Italia, Milan Branch)

Abstract

This work documents the construction of the new quarterly indicator of regional economic activity (Indicatore Trimestrale dell’Economia Regionale—ITER), which uses a parsimonious set of regional variables and combines them by means of temporal disaggregation techniques to obtain a quarterly index that is consistent with the official data on national and regional GDP and marked by a small lag compared with the reference period. The methodology was implemented to produce quarterly indicators for the economies of Italy’s four macro-areas in the period 1995–2017. With a view to assessing the performance of the quarterly indicator, a forecasting exercise was conducted regarding annual GDP growth in the four macro-areas for the period 2014–17. The forecasting performance of ITER is in line with that of the indicators developed by other national research institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Valter Giacinto & Libero Monteforte & Andrea Filippone & Francesco Montaruli & Tiziano Ropele, 2021. "ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 129-147, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:italej:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s40797-020-00131-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40797-020-00131-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Temporal disaggregation of time series; Regional economies benchmarking and extrapolation; Real time estimates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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