IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v10y2019i1d10.1007_s13198-018-00757-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A review paper to examine the validity of Bayesian network to build rational consensus in subjective probabilistic failure analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Yazdi

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

In recent decades the dependency of a society on the industrial sector has been widely increased, leading to the rapid occurrence of high number of industrial accidents. Thus, it is important to be ensured that the operations of their complex systems and commonly hazardous components are still safe working. The probabilistic failure analysis is commonly engaged to improve the safety performance of the system using varieties of methods including fault tree analysis, bow-tie analysis, or block diagram analysis. Such mentioned methods in some cases can be applied with consideration of multi-expert judgment which brings high subjectivity its inside. The current work is aimed at performing a subjective probabilistic failure analysis by considering rational consensus in the industrial sector. Therefore, Bayesian network method is utilized in this regards and accordingly the validation of this technique is evaluated based on the literature and real industrial case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Yazdi, 2019. "A review paper to examine the validity of Bayesian network to build rational consensus in subjective probabilistic failure analysis," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13198-018-00757-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-018-00757-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-018-00757-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-018-00757-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Yen-Cheng Chen & Tung-Han Yu & Pei-Ling Tsui & Ching-Sung Lee, 2014. "Erratum to: A fuzzy AHP approach to construct international hotel spa atmosphere evaluation model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2371-2371, July.
    3. Yasser Minatour & Hossein Bonakdari & Zahra Shirmohammadi Aliakbarkhani, 2016. "Extension of Fuzzy Delphi AHP Based on Interval-Valued Fuzzy Sets and its Application in Water Resource Rating Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3123-3141, July.
    4. Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Validation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 37-59, Springer.
    5. John Quigley & Abigail Colson & Willy Aspinall & Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Elicitation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 15-36, Springer.
    6. Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
    7. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2012. "Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-44.
    8. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    9. Cooke, Roger M. & ElSaadany, Susie & Huang, Xinzheng, 2008. "On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 745-756.
    10. Arman Nedjati & Bela Vizvari & Gokhan Izbirak, 2016. "Post-earthquake response by small UAV helicopters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1669-1688, February.
    11. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    12. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    13. Fang Yan & Kaili Xu & Xiwen Yao & Yang Li, 2016. "Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Jensen U., 2002. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 925-925, September.
    15. Aven, Terje & Krohn, Bodil S., 2014. "A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-10.
    16. Zhang, Limao & Wu, Xianguo & Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. & Zhong, Jingbing & Lu, Yujie, 2014. "Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 29-39.
    17. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    18. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
    19. Terje Aven & Enrico Zio, 2014. "Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1164-1172, July.
    20. Wu, Wei-Shing & Yang, Chen-Feng & Chang, Jung-Chuan & Château, Pierre-Alexandre & Chang, Yang-Chi, 2015. "Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 515-524.
    21. Arman Nedjati & Bela Vizvari & Gokhan Izbirak, 2016. "Post-earthquake response by small UAV helicopters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1669-1688, February.
    22. Stan Kaplan, 1997. "The Words of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 407-417, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yazdi, Mohammad & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Quddus, Noor & Castaneda-Lopez, Homero, 2022. "A review of risk-based decision-making models for microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) in offshore pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    2. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    3. Jeremy Rohmer & Eric Chojnacki, 2021. "Forecast of environment systems using expert judgements: performance comparison between the possibilistic and the classical model," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 131-146, March.
    4. Ilić, Damir & Milošević, Isidora & Ilić-Kosanović, Tatjana, 2022. "Application of Unmanned Aircraft Systems for smart city transformation: Case study Belgrade," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
    6. Hong, Bingyuan & Shao, Bowen & Guo, Jian & Fu, Jianzhong & Li, Cuicui & Zhu, Baikang, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network risk probability evolution for third-party damage of natural gas pipelines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    7. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    8. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Thai, Vinh V., 2021. "An Operational Risk Analysis Model for Container Shipping Systems considering Uncertainty Quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. P. Pablo Poveda-Orjuela & J. Carlos García-Díaz & Alexander Pulido-Rojano & Germán Cañón-Zabala, 2020. "Parameterization, Analysis, and Risk Management in a Comprehensive Management System with Emphasis on Energy and Performance (ISO 50001: 2018)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-43, October.
    10. Mahmoud Golabi & Seyed Mahdi Shavarani & Gokhan Izbirak, 2017. "An edge-based stochastic facility location problem in UAV-supported humanitarian relief logistics: a case study of Tehran earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1545-1565, July.
    11. Sven Ove Hansson & Terje Aven, 2014. "Is Risk Analysis Scientific?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1173-1183, July.
    12. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
    13. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
    14. Jeong, Ho Young & Yu, David J. & Min, Byung-Cheol & Lee, Seokcheon, 2020. "The humanitarian flying warehouse," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng & Dong, Chao & Ding, Lieyun, 2019. "Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Michael Felix Pacevicius & Marilia Ramos & Davide Roverso & Christian Thun Eriksen & Nicola Paltrinieri, 2022. "Managing Heterogeneous Datasets for Dynamic Risk Analysis of Large-Scale Infrastructures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-40, April.
    17. Song, Haifeng & Liu, Jieyu & Schnieder, Eckehard, 2017. "Validation, verification and evaluation of a Train to Train Distance Measurement System by means of Colored Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 10-23.
    18. Bing Wu & Huibin Tian & Xinping Yan & C. Guedes Soares, 2020. "A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 422-436, April.
    19. Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 137-150.
    20. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13198-018-00757-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.