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A comparison of health expectancies over 10 years: implications for elderly service needs in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Ruby Yu

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    Jockey Club Institute of Ageing, the Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jason Leung

    (Jockey Club Centre for Osteoporosis Care and Control, the Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • C. M. Lum

    (Shatin Hospital)

  • T. W. Auyeung

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jenny S. W. Lee

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Ruby Lee

    (Department of Health)

  • Jean Woo

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    Jockey Club Institute of Ageing, the Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Objectives We aimed to estimate health expectancies at age 65 based on physical and cognitive function in 2001–2002 and 2011–2012 and project future needs for carers from 2021 to 2041. Methods Data from the Elderly Health Centres (EHCs) of the Department of Health of the Government of Hong Kong comprising of people aged 65 years or older who enrolled between 2001 and 2002 (EHC 2001–2002) and between 2011 and 2012 (EHC 2011–2012) provided proportion estimates for physical impairment (assessed by independence in activities of daily living) and cognitive impairment (assessed by Abbreviated Mental Test/Mini-Mental Status Examination and self-reported doctor diagnosis of dementia). Health expectancies (years lived with/without physical and/or cognitive impairment) were calculated by Sullivan’s method. The proportions of physical and/or cognitive impairment were used to project future needs for carers. Results Between 2001–2002 and 2011–2012, years lived without physical/cognitive impairment decreased for men but increased for women, both of which were less than the increases in total life expectancy. Men assessed in 2011–2012 (classified as EHC 2011–2012) lived more years with physical and/or cognitive impairment than those assessed in 2001–2002 (classified as EHC 2001–2002), and women in EHC 2011–2012 lived more years with physical impairment, but fewer years with cognitive impairment than those in EHC 2001–2002, and women enrolled in EHC 2011–2012 lived more years with physical impairment, but fewer years with cognitive impairment than those in EHC 2001–2002. As populations age, the number of carers needed is expected to increase from 344,000 in 2021 to 629,000 by 2041, or an increase of 82.9%. Sensitivity analyses excluding the participants who had been assessed in 2011–2012 from EHC 2001–2002 gave similar estimations. Conclusions Increased life expectancy was not accompanied by an increase in years lived without physical/cognitive impairment. These findings suggest that people will live longer but could be more dependent, which would have considerable implications for elderly service needs in Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruby Yu & Jason Leung & C. M. Lum & T. W. Auyeung & Jenny S. W. Lee & Ruby Lee & Jean Woo, 2019. "A comparison of health expectancies over 10 years: implications for elderly service needs in Hong Kong," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(5), pages 731-742, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:64:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s00038-019-01240-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01240-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kristen Suthers & Jung Ki Kim & Eileen Crimmins, 2003. "Life Expectancy With Cognitive Impairment in the Older Population of the United States," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 58(3), pages 179-186.
    3. Branch, L.G. & Katz, S. & Kniepmann, K. & Papsidero, J.A., 1984. "A prospective study of functional status among community elders," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 74(3), pages 266-268.
    4. Qiushi Feng & Zhihong Zhen & Danan Gu & Bei Wu & Pamela W. Duncan & Jama L. Purser, 2013. "Trends in ADL and IADL Disability in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Shanghai, China, 1998-2008," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 68(3), pages 476-485.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Woo & Rina Ko & Ruby Yu & Stacey Chan & Regina Lo & Kar Him Mo, 2023. "Healthy Ageing Should Be a Key Component of Ageing in Place: Case Study from Hong Kong," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-7, May.

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