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Health expectancies among older adults in China: Results from the 2010 and 2020 population censuses

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Guo

    (Xi'an Jiaotong University)

  • Quanbao Jiang

    (Xi'an Jiaotong University)

  • Li Mei

    (Xi’an Physical Education University (XPEU))

Abstract

Background: Despite the rapid increase in the aging population in China, the health expectancies of older adults remain underexamined. Objective: Our aim is to investigate the health expectancies of older adults in China and examine changes between 2010 and 2020. Methods: Using data from the 2010 and 2020 Chinese population censuses, health expectancies were calculated for good, fair, poor, and disabled health states by period, sex, and residence. The Sullivan method was applied, and differences in health expectancies were decomposed into changes in mortality rates (mortality effects) and rates of different health states (health effects). Results: Between 2010 and 2020, the good health life expectancy at age 60 increased from 9.63 to 11.66 years, while disabled life expectancy rose from 0.76 to 0.97 years. Females experienced a notable rise in good health life expectancy, reaching 11.71 years at age 60 and surpassing males (11.61 years). However, females’ disabled life expectancy remained higher than that of males (1.18 vs. 0.76 years). Urban–rural disparities widened, with urban residents enjoying 3.12 years longer good health life expectancy compared to rural residents and experiencing more rapid improvements. Conclusions: China experienced a significant rise in healthy life expectancy between 2010 and 2020, characterized by narrowing sex disparities but widening urban–rural gaps. Both health and mortality effects contributed to these changes and disparities, albeit to varying degrees. Contribution: This study provides updated estimates of health expectancy in China for 2010 and 2020, highlighting sex and rural–urban differences. It finds that both declining mortality rates and improving health contributed to the changes during the past decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Guo & Quanbao Jiang & Li Mei, 2025. "Health expectancies among older adults in China: Results from the 2010 and 2020 population censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(11), pages 351-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:52:y:2025:i:11
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2025.52.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gu, Danan & Dupre, Matthew E. & Warner, David F. & Zeng, Yi, 2009. "Changing health status and health expectancies among older adults in China: Gender differences from 1992 to 2002," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2170-2179, June.
    2. Zhang, Hao & Bago d’Uva, Teresa & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2015. "The gender health gap in China: A decomposition analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 13-26.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    health expectancies; Sullivan method; sex differences; residence; population censuses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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