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Drivers of Durable Peace: The Role of Justice in Negotiating Civil War Termination

Author

Listed:
  • Lynn Wagner

    (International Institute for Sustainable Development
    Uppsala University)

  • Daniel Druckman

    (George Mason University
    Macquarie University
    University of Queensland
    Uppsala University)

Abstract

Attaining durable peace after a civil war has become a major challenge, as many negotiated settlements relapse into violence. How can civil war negotiations be conducted and peace agreements formulated so as to contribute to lasting, durable peace? Previous research has focused on the durability of peace agreements, measured as the absence of violence. This study develops an index to measure durable peace for a period of 8 years after the agreement had been reached, and evaluates the new measure using an existing data set. We ask whether impacts on durable peace are similar or different to those found for the durability of agreements. This question suggests a number of hypotheses that are evaluated with 16 cases of peace agreements. Stable agreements are shown to mediate the relationship between equality provisions in peace agreements and durable peace, and to also mediate the relationship between procedural justice and the reconciliation component of durable peace. Interestingly, economic stability is not a dividend of peace agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynn Wagner & Daniel Druckman, 2017. "Drivers of Durable Peace: The Role of Justice in Negotiating Civil War Termination," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 45-67, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:26:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10726-016-9511-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-016-9511-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramzi Badran, 2014. "Intrastate peace agreements and the durability of peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 193-217, April.
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    3. J. Michael Quinn & T. David Mason & Mehmet Gurses, 2007. "Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 167-193, April.
    4. Achim Wennmann, 2009. "Getting Armed Groups to the Table: peace processes, the political economy of conflict and the mediated state," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 1123-1138.
    5. Sven Oskarsson & Torsten Svensson & PerOla Öberg, 2009. "Power, Trust, and Institutional Constraints," Rationality and Society, , vol. 21(2), pages 171-195, May.
    6. Helga Malmin Binningsbø & Cyanne E Loyle & Scott Gates & Jon Elster, 2012. "Armed conflict and post-conflict justice, 1946–2006," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(5), pages 731-740, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Cesare Miller, 2023. "Without an army: How ICC indictments reduce atrocities," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 573-587, July.
    2. Daniel Druckman & Lynn Wagner, 2019. "Justice Matters: Peace Negotiations, Stable Agreements, and Durable Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 287-316, February.
    3. Lindsey Doyle & Lukas Hegele, 2021. "Talks before the talks: Effects of pre-negotiation on reaching peace agreements in intrastate armed conflicts, 2005–15," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 231-247, March.
    4. Joseph M Cox, 2020. "Negotiating justice: Ceasefires, peace agreements, and post-conflict justice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 466-481, May.

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