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Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence

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  • J. Michael Quinn
  • T. David Mason
  • Mehmet Gurses

Abstract

Over half of all civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997 were followed by at least one if not more episodes of civil war. We present a model to explain which characteristics of a civil war and the post-war environment make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with data on civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997. Findings suggest that civil wars are less likely to recur following rebel victories and peace agreements supported by peacekeeping forces. Post-war economic development also reduces the probability of civil war recurrence, and the longer the peace can be sustained, the less likely civil war is to recur. These effects hold regardless of whether the previous war was ethnically based or not, and whether it was secessionist or revolutionary.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Michael Quinn & T. David Mason & Mehmet Gurses, 2007. "Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 167-193, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:33:y:2007:i:2:p:167-193
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620701277673
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Gurses & Nicolas Rost, 2013. "Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 469-491, November.
    2. Karin Dyrstad & Tanja Ellingsen & Jan Ketil Rød, 2015. "Ethnonationalism in post-war Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo The effects of local violence and ethnic composition," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 4-25, March.
    3. Salah Abosedra & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2020. "Ethnic Divisions And The Onset Of Civil Wars In Syria," Working Papers 1384, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Mar 2020.
    4. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    5. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(3), pages 1114-1147.
    6. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    7. Rohner, Dominic & Couttenier, Mathieu & Preotu, Veronica, 2016. "The Violent Legacy of Victimization: Post-Conflict Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crimes and Public Policy in Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 11079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Morán, Hilcías E., 2011. "The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 41-61, January.
    9. Bussmann Margit & Ranft Florian, 2016. "Distribution of Military Power and Prospects of Post-Conflict Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 385-392, December.
    10. David E. Cunningham & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Idean Salehyan, 2013. "Non-state actors in civil wars: A new dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 516-531, November.
    11. Julian Donaubauer & Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Aid under Post-Conflict Conditions: A Sector-Specific Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 720-736, April.
    12. Matthew Fuhrmann & Jaroslav Tir, 2009. "Territorial Dimensions of Enduring Internal Rivalries," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 307-329, September.
    13. Joseph M Cox, 2020. "Negotiating justice: Ceasefires, peace agreements, and post-conflict justice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 466-481, May.
    14. Ramzi Badran, 2014. "Intrastate peace agreements and the durability of peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 193-217, April.
    15. Lynn Wagner & Daniel Druckman, 2017. "Drivers of Durable Peace: The Role of Justice in Negotiating Civil War Termination," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 45-67, January.
    16. Daniel S. Morey, 2009. "Conflict and the Duration of Peace in Enduring Internal Rivalries," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 331-345, September.
    17. Adonteng-Kissi, Obed & Adonteng-Kissi, Barbara & Kamal Jibril, Mohammed & Osei, Samuel Kwesi, 2019. "Communal Conflict Versus Education: Experiences of Stakeholders in Ghana’s Bawku Conflict," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.
    18. Thomas Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2009. "Financing the peace: Evaluating World Bank post-conflict assistance programs," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, March.
    19. Madhav Joshi & Jason Michael Quinn, 2020. "Civil war termination and foreign direct investment, 1989–2012," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 451-470, July.
    20. Akisato Suzuki & Djordje Stefanovic & Neophytos Loizides, 2021. "Displacement and the expectation of political violence: Evidence from Bosnia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(5), pages 561-579, September.
    21. Grävingholt, Jörn & Mroß, Karina & Bendfeldt, Lennart & Blos, Yvonne & Fiedler, Charlotte & Mroß, Karina, 2013. "Struggling for stability: international support for peace and democracy in post-civil war Nepal," IDOS Discussion Papers 27/2013, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    22. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    23. Caroline A. Hartzell, 2009. "Settling Civil Wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 347-365, September.

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