IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v24y2008i2d10.1007_s10680-008-9162-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Heiland

    (Florida State University)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Vienna Institute of Demography)

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (International Institute of Applied System Analysis
    State University of New York at Stony Brook
    State University of New York at Stony Brook)

Abstract

Using West German panel data constructed from the 1988 and 1994/1995 wave of the DJI Familiensurvey, we analyze the stability and determinants of individuals’ total desired fertility. We find considerable variation of total desired fertility across respondents and across interviews. In particular, up to 50% of individuals report a different total desired fertility across survey waves. Multivariate analysis confirms the importance of background factors including growing up with both parents, having more siblings, and being Catholic for preference formation. Consistent with the idea that life course experiences provide new information regarding the expected costs and benefits of different family sizes, the influence of background factors on total desired fertility is strong early in life and weakens as subsequent life course experiences, including childbearing, take effect. Accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we estimate that an additional child may increase the total desired fertility of women with children by 0.14 children, less than what conventional estimates from cross-sectional data would have suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2008. "Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 129-156, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:24:y:2008:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-008-9162-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-008-9162-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-008-9162-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-008-9162-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Otis Duncan & Ronald Freedman & J. Coble & Doris Slesinger, 1965. "Marital Fertility and Size of Family of Orientation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 2(1), pages 508-515, March.
    2. J. Udry, 1983. "Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 20(2), pages 117-128, May.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. repec:cai:poeine:pope_601_0099 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Haris Symeonidou, 2000. "Expected and Actual Family Size in Greece: 1983–1997," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 335-352, December.
    6. Ted Joyce & Robert Kaestner & Sanders Korenman, 2002. "On the validity of retrospective assessments of pregnancy intention," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 199-213, February.
    7. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    8. Debra Friedman & Michael Hechter & Satoshi Kanazawa, 1994. "A theory of the value of children," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 375-401, August.
    9. Lolagene Coombs, 1979. "Reproductive goals and achieved fertility: A fifteen-year perspective," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(4), pages 523-534, November.
    10. Ronald Freedman & Lolagene Coombs & Larry Bumpass, 1965. "Stability and change in expectations about family size: A longitudinal study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 2(1), pages 250-275, March.
    11. Elizabeth Thomson & Elaine McDonald & Larry Bumpass, 1990. "Fertility desires and fertility: Hers, his, and theirs," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 579-588, November.
    12. S. Morgan, 1985. "Individual and couple intentions for more children: A research note," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 22(1), pages 125-132, February.
    13. S. Morgan, 1981. "Intention and uncertainty at later stages of childbearing: the united states 1965 and 1970," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(3), pages 267-285, August.
    14. David Voas, 2003. "Conflicting Preferences: A Reason Fertility Tends to Be Too High or Too Low," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(4), pages 627-646, December.
    15. Adsera, Alicia, 2005. "Differences in Desired and Actual Fertility: An Economic Analysis of the Spanish Case," IZA Discussion Papers 1584, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Hugo Bentez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2005. "The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 587-592, August.
    17. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1987_42n6_0842 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lolagene Coombs, 1974. "The measurement of family size preferences and subsequent fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(4), pages 587-611, November.
    19. Judith Blake, 1966. "Ideal family size among white Americans: A quarter of a century’s evidence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 154-173, March.
    20. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao, 1992. "Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 477-493, November.
    22. Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2001. "Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199244591.
    23. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Arland Thornton & Ronald Freedman & Deborah Freedman, 1984. "Further reflections on changes in fertility expectations and preferences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(3), pages 423-429, August.
    25. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Joseph L. Rodgers & Kaare Christensen, 1999. "Is Fertility Behavior in Our Genes? Findings from a Danish Twin Study," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 253-288, June.
    26. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2002. "Time Squeeze, Partner Effect or Self-Selection?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(2), pages 15-48.
    27. Nan Marie Astone & Constance A. Nathanson & Robert Schoen & Young J. Kim, 1999. "Family Demography, Social Theory, and Investment in Social Capital," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 1-31, March.
    28. Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2005. "Do the More-Educated Prefer Smaller Families?," VID Working Papers 0503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    29. Ronald Freedman & Deborah Freedman & Arland Thornton, 1980. "Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(4), pages 365-378, November.
    30. Henriette Engelhardt, 2004. "Fertility Intentions and Preferences: Effects of Structural and Financial Incentives and Constraints in Austria," VID Working Papers 0402, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    31. Susan Gustavus & Charles Nam, 1970. "The formation and stability of ideal family size among young people," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 7(1), pages 43-51, February.
    32. Charles Westoff & Norman Ryder, 1977. "The Predictive Validity Of Reproductive Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 431-453, November.
    33. McCallum, B T, 1972. "Relative Asymptotic Bias from Errors of Omission and Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(4), pages 757-758, July.
    34. S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
    35. Elizabeth Thomson, 1997. "Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 343-354, August.
    36. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low‐Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Najat Bazah & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes, 2024. "Fertility as a variable for tackling the demographic challenge, is having children in Spain an unfulfilled desire?," Working Papers REM 2024/0317, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap [Intentions de fécondité et fécondité observée: Rôle des politiques publiques dans la réduction du décalage]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 355-361, November.
    3. Youngcho Lee, 2022. "Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1471-1500, August.
    4. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
    5. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer, 2021. "Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-767, July.
    6. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    7. Hanna Vseviov & Allan Puur & Mark Gortfelder, 2023. "Fertility Intentions and Sexual Orientation: Evidence from the 2020 Youth Survey in Estonia," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Natalie Nitsche & D. Susie Lee, 2022. "Emotion and fertility in times of disaster: conceptualizing fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    10. Mar Llorente-Marrón & Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 771-798, April.
    11. Yu Yang & Rongxin He & Ning Zhang & Liming Li, 2023. "Second-Child Fertility Intentions among Urban Women in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-16, February.
    12. C Geist & B G Everett & R G Simmons & J N Sanders & L M Gawron & K Myers & D K Turok, 2021. "Changing lives, dynamic plans: Prospective assessment of 12-month changes in pregnancy timing intentions and personal circumstances using data from HER Salt Lake," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-11, September.
    13. Maria Rita Testa, 2017. "Will highly educated women have more children in the future? Looking at reproductive plans and outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 033-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2005. "Do the More-Educated Prefer Smaller Families?," VID Working Papers 0503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    3. Tomo Nishimura, 2012. "What are the factors of the gap between desired and actual fertility? - A comparative study of four developed countries," Discussion Paper Series 81, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2012.
    4. Sara Yeatman & Christie Sennott & Steven Culpepper, 2013. "Young Women’s Dynamic Family Size Preferences in the Context of Transitioning Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1715-1737, October.
    5. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    6. Henriette Engelhardt, 2004. "Fertility Intentions and Preferences: Effects of Structural and Financial Incentives and Constraints in Austria," VID Working Papers 0402, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Francesca Fiori & Francesca Rinesi & Antonella Pinnelli & Sabrina Prati, 2013. "Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(3), pages 373-413, June.
    8. Colleen Ray & Sela Harcey & Arthur Greil & Stacy Tiemeyer & Julia McQuillan, 2018. "Stability and change in personal fertility ideals among U.S. women in heterosexual relationships," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(16), pages 459-486.
    9. Tomáš Sobotka, 2009. "Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria [Intentions de fécondité inférieures au seuil de remplacement en Autriche]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 387-412, November.
    10. Adsera, Alicia, 2005. "Differences in Desired and Actual Fertility: An Economic Analysis of the Spanish Case," IZA Discussion Papers 1584, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Alessandro Rosina & Laura Cavalli & Maria Rita Testa, 2011. "Couples’ childbearing behaviour in Italy: which of the partners is leading it?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 157-178.
    12. Alicia Adsera, 2006. "An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 75-95, March.
    13. Ea Hoppe Blaabæk & Mads Meier Jæger & Joseph Molitoris, 2020. "Family Size and Educational Attainment: Cousins, Contexts, and Compensation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 575-600, July.
    14. Maria Rita Testa, 2012. "Couple disagreement about short-term fertility desires in Austria: Effects on intentions and contraceptive behaviour," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(3), pages 63-98.
    15. Wanchuan Lin & Juan Pantano & Shuqiao Sun, 2020. "Birth order and unwanted fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 413-440, April.
    16. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    17. S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
    18. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    19. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    20. David De Wachter & Karel Neels, 2011. "Educational differentials in fertility intentions and outcomes: family formation in Flanders in the early 1990s," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 227-258.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:24:y:2008:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-008-9162-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.