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Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes

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  • Laurent Toulemon
  • Maria Rita Testa

Abstract

In France, as in all European countries, the birth of a first child has been increasingly delayed over time, but the reasons why individuals decide to postpone the time to become a parent still remain to be deeply investigated at the micro level. In this prospective study we analyse fertility preferences and subsequent reproductive behaviour of childless people, and implement a model that uses desires, or intentions, with their related timing, as key covariates. Results show that desired and intended fertility are a strong predictor of subsequent family formation, even after controlling for the effects of other relevant variables, and people become more realistic about their short-term childbearing plans when asked to assess their personal chance to have a future birth. Moreover, highly educated people anticipate their own transition to parenthood more precisely, as compared to low educated people. Age is the most crucial factor determining the probability to remain involuntarily childless in the interval between the surveys, while persistent childlessness is mostly associated with the lack of a partner if it is a consequence of a deliberate choice to postpone childbearing.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Toulemon & Maria Rita Testa, 2006. "Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 41-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:4:y:2006:i:1:p:41-75
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    1. Kuhnt, Anne-Kristin & Buhr, Petra, 2016. "Biographical risks and their impact on uncertainty in fertility expectations: A gender-specific study based on the German Family Panel," Duisburger Beiträge zur soziologischen Forschung 2016-03, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Sociology.
    2. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.
    3. Maria Rita Testa & Francesco Rampazzo, 2018. "From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 177-198.
    4. Maria Rita Testa & Laura Cavalli & Alessandro Rosina, 2014. "The Effect of Couple Disagreement about Child-Timing Intentions: A Parity-Specific Approach," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 31-53, March.
    5. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    6. Alessandro Rosina & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Couples’ First Child Intentions and Disagreement: An Analysis of the Italian Case [La concordance des intentions d’avoir un premier enfant dans le couple: Une analyse du cas italien]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 487-502, November.
    7. Auspurg, Katrin & Burton, Jonathan & Cullinane, Carl & Delavande, Adeline & Laura, Fumagalli & Iacovou, Maria & Jäckle, Annette & Kaminska, Olena & Lynn, Peter & Mathews, Paul & Nicolaas, Gerry & Nic, 2013. "Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 5: results from methodological experiments," Understanding Society Working Paper Series 2013-06, Understanding Society at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    9. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    10. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2012. "Realising birth intentions in European comparison – understanding the postcommunist fertility transition," Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare 15, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.
    11. Lara Patrício Tavares, 2016. "Who Delays Childbearing? The Associations Between Time to First Birth, Personality Traits and Education," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 575-597, October.
    12. Maria Rita Testa & Valeria Bordone & Beata Osiewalska & Vegard Skirbekk, 2016. "Are daughters’ childbearing intentions related to their mothers’ socio-economic status?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(21), pages 581-616.
    13. Yuko Nozaki, 2017. "The effects of higher education on childrearing fertility behavior in Japan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(5), pages 653-669, May.
    14. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
    15. Tomo Nishimura, 2012. "What are the factors of the gap between desired and actual fertility? - A comparative study of four developed countries," Discussion Paper Series 81, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2012.
    16. Melinda Mills & Nicoletta Balbo, 2011. "The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 179-206.
    17. Maria Rita Testa & Danilo Bolano, 2021. "When partners’ disagreement prevents childbearing: A couple-level analysis in Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(33), pages 811-838.
    18. Fausat M. Ibrahim & Oyedunni S. Arulogun, 2020. "Posterity and population growth: fertility intention among a cohort of Nigerian adolescents," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 25-52, March.
    19. Anne-Kristin Kuhnt & Heike Trappe, 2013. "Easier said than done: childbearing intentions and their realization in a short term perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2014. "Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(3), pages 393-418, June.
    21. Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "The Effect of Competing Intentions and Behaviour on Short-Term Childbearing Intentions and Subsequent Childbearing [L’effet des intentions et des comportements concurrents sur les intentions de pro," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 525-548, November.
    22. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer & Michaela Potancokova, 2018. "Didn’t plan one but got one: unintended and sooner-than-intended births among men and women in six European countries," VID Working Papers 1805, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    23. Lars Dommermuth & Jane Klobas & Trude Lappegård, 2014. "Differences in childbearing by time frame of fertility intention. A study using survey and register data from Norway," Discussion Papers 781, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    24. Antti O. Tanskanen & Anna Rotkirch, 2014. "The impact of grandparental investment on mothers’ fertility intentions in four European countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    25. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

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