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Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings

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  • Q. Michard
  • J.-P. Bouchaud

Abstract

We unveil collective effects induced by imitation and social pressure by analyzing data from three different sources: birth rates, sales of cell phones and the drop of applause in concert halls. We interpret our results within the framework of the Random Field Ising Model, which is a threshold model for collective decisions accounting both for agent heterogeneity and social imitation. Changes of opinion can occur either abruptly or continuously, depending on the importance of herding effects. The main prediction of the model is a scaling relation between the height h of the speed of variation peak and its width w of the form h ∼w -κ , with κ= 2/3 for well connected populations. Our three sets of data are compatible with such a prediction, with κ≈0.62 for birth rates, κ≈0.71 for cell phones and κ≈0.64 for clapping. In this last case, we in fact observe that some clapping samples end discontinuously (w=0), as predicted by the model for strong enough imitation. Copyright EDP Sciences/Società Italiana di Fisica/Springer-Verlag 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Q. Michard & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2005. "Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 47(1), pages 151-159, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:47:y:2005:i:1:p:151-159
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2005-00307-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927, January.
    2. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019, January.
    3. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Denis Phan, 2006. "Discrete Choices under Social Influence:Generic Properties," Post-Print halshs-00105857, HAL.
    3. Sebastien Valeyre, 2022. "Optimal trend following portfolios," Papers 2201.06635, arXiv.org.
    4. Serge Galam, 2011. "Market efficiency, anticipation and the formation of bubbles-crashes," Papers 1106.1577, arXiv.org.
    5. Li, Jie & Wang, Juan & Sun, Shiwen & Xia, Chengyi, 2018. "Cascading crashes induced by the individual heterogeneity in complex networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 182-192.
    6. Mirta B. Gordon & Jean-Pierre Nadal & Denis Phan & Viktoriya Semeshenko, 2012. "Entanglement between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods," Papers 1209.1321, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
    7. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    8. Vaz Martins, Teresa & Araújo, Tanya & Augusta Santos, Maria & St Aubyn, Miguel, 2009. "Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2207-2214.
    9. Christian Borghesi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2007. "Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 557-568, August.
    10. Martins, André C.R. & Pereira, Carlos de B. & Vicente, Renato, 2009. "An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3225-3232.
    11. Jean Philippe Bouchaud & Matteo Marsili & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2023. "Application of spin glass ideas in social sciences, economics and finance," Post-Print hal-04145594, HAL.
    12. Damien Challet, 2016. "Regrets, learning and wisdom," Post-Print hal-01312973, HAL.
    13. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    14. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
    15. Daniele Notarmuzi & Claudio Castellano & Alessandro Flammini & Dario Mazzilli & Filippo Radicchi, 2022. "Universality, criticality and complexity of information propagation in social media," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    16. Moran, José & Fosset, Antoine & Kirman, Alan & Benzaquen, Michael, 2021. "From ants to fishing vessels: a simple model for herding and exploitation of finite resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Thompson, Michael & Young, Louise, 2014. "Measuring complex patterns in space–time," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 28-35.
    18. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Matteo Marsili & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2023. "Application of spin glass ideas in social sciences, economics and finance," Papers 2306.16165, arXiv.org.

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