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The Impact of Containment Measures and Monetary and Fiscal Responses on US Financial Markets during the Covid-19 Pandemic

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  • Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, it applies fractional integration methods to analyse their impact on the daily S&P500, the US Treasury Bond Index (USTB), the S&P Green Bond Index (GREEN) and the Dow Jones (DJ) Islamic World Market Index (ISLAM) over the period 1/01/2020-10/03/2021. The results suggest that all four indices are highly persistent and exhibit orders of integration close to 1. A small degree of mean reversion is observed only for the S&P500 under the assumption of white noise errors and USTB with autocorrelated errors; therefore, market efficiency appears to hold in most cases. The mortality rate, surprisingly, seems to have affected stock and bond prices positively with autocorrelated errors. As for the policy responses, both the containment and fiscal measures had a rather limited impact, whilst there were significant announcement effects which lifted markets, especially in the case of monetary announcements. There is also evidence of a significant, positive response to changes in the effective Federal funds rate, which suggests that the financial industry, mainly benefiting from interest rises, plays a dominant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2021. "The Impact of Containment Measures and Monetary and Fiscal Responses on US Financial Markets during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 9163, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort, 2023. "Fiscal consumption and private consumption in Europe: what have we learned?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(14), pages 1930-1935, August.
    3. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies, Technology Stocks, Covid-19 and US Policy Responses: A Fractional Integration Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9624, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; policy responses and announcements; containment measures; US financial markets; stocks; bonds; Islamic stocks; green bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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