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Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Federica Cappelli

    (Roma Tre University)

  • Caterina Conigliani

    (Roma Tre University)

  • Davide Consoli

    (INGENIO CSIC-UPV)

  • Valeria Costantini

    (Roma Tre University)

  • Elena Paglialunga

    (University of Urbino “Carlo Bò”)

Abstract

The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based on a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for the African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting the probability of violent events and the persistency of conflicting behaviour over time. The proposed strategy also accounts for both changes in climatic conditions and spatial dynamics. The two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts over large spatial ranges, thus suggesting that the design of adaptation policies to reduce climate vulnerability should account for multiple spatial interrelations. Second, the persistency of violence calls for planning adaptation strategies for climate resilience jointly designed with measures in support of peacekeeping.

Suggested Citation

  • Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:40:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-022-00271-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-022-00271-x
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; Armed conflicts; Climate change; Geographical spillovers; Spatial econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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