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Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Almer, Christian
  • Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy
  • Oechslin, Manuel

Abstract

It is often purported that unusually dry weather conditions provoke small-scale social conflict—riots—by intensifying the competition for water. The present paper explores this hypothesis, using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We rely on monthly data at the cell level (0.5×0.5 degrees), an approach that is tailored to the short-lived and local nature of the phenomenon. Using a drought index to proxy for weather shocks, we find that a one-standard-deviation fall in the index (signaling drier conditions) raises the likelihood of riots in a given cell and month by 8.3%. We further observe that the effect of unusually dry weather conditions is substantially larger in cells with a lower availability of water resources (such as rivers and lakes), a finding that supports the significance of the competition-for-water mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & Oechslin, Manuel, 2017. "Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 193-209.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:86:y:2017:i:c:p:193-209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2017.06.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small-scale conflict; Riots; Water shocks; Disaggregated data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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