IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolit/v35y2018i1d10.1007_s40888-017-0081-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Taming the great depression: Keynes’s personal investments in the US stock market, 1931–1939

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Cristiano

    (Università di Pisa)

  • Maria Cristina Marcuzzo

    (Università di Roma, La Sapienza)

  • Eleonora Sanfilippo

    (Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale)

Abstract

While the recent literature has shown an increasing interest in Keynes’s investment activity, specific analysis of his own (rather than for King’s College) investments in US securities is still lacking. Keynes began to trade in the US stock market on a regular basis in late 1931, when it was still very hard to tell when full recovery could be expected. In 1930, he had publicly rebutted the view of his business partner Oswald Falk, whose advice to investors was to abandon British manufacture and buy American shares. Until 1933, Keynes’s outlook on the USA remained negative. Only in February 1934 did Keynes become optimistic about the USA on account of his growing confidence in the New Deal, which however was short-lived. In 1937 he was shaken by the US recession and disillusioned by Roosevelt’s fiscal policies and reforms. In this paper we first trace the evolution of Keynes’s opinions on the US economy and his “view” on the US stock market. There are direct references to Wall Street and specific examples relating to its working that are contained, in particular, in Chapter 12 of the General Theory. We then go on to follow the timeline of his investments by sectors, focusing on the companies that Keynes held onto for a longer period, looking for a pattern in his investment behaviour in the US market between 1931 and 1939, before the War changed the personal and institutional circumstances of his investment activity. We offer also a comparison of Keynes’s own portfolio with his investments on behalf of King’s (as reconstructed by Chambers and Kabiri, Bus Hist Rev 90(Summer):301–328, 2016) and conclude with an assessment of the influence of his theoretical approach on his investment activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Cristiano & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2018. "Taming the great depression: Keynes’s personal investments in the US stock market, 1931–1939," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 13-40, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:35:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0081-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-017-0081-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40888-017-0081-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40888-017-0081-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Cristiano & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo, 2018. "John Maynard Keynes: the economist as investor," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 266-281, April.
    2. Moggridge, D E, 1992. "The," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 207-209, Summer.
    3. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    4. Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2016. "Keynes and the interwar commodity option markets," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 327-348.
    5. Eugene Kandel & Konstantin Kosenko & Randall Morck & Yishay Yafeh, 2013. "The Great Pyramids of America: A Revised History of US Business Groups, Corporate Ownership and Regulation, 1930-1950," NBER Working Papers 19691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson, 2013. "Retrospectives: John Maynard Keynes, Investment Innovator," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 213-228, Summer.
    7. Chambers, David & Kabiri, Ali, 2016. "Keynes and Wall Street," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(2), pages 301-328, July.
    8. Fantacci, Luca & Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2010. "Speculation In Commodities: Keynes’ “Practical Acquaintance” With Futures Markets," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 397-418, September.
    9. Carlo Cristiano & Nerio Naldi, 2014. "Keynes's activity on the cotton market and the theory of the 'normal backwardation': 1921-1929," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 1039-1059, December.
    10. Chambers, David & Dimson, Elroy & Foo, Justin, 2015. "Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 843-868, August.
    11. J. E. Woods, 2013. "On Keynes as an investor," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(2), pages 423-442.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2022. "Keynes's personal investments in the London Stock Exchange and his views on the transformation of the British economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 512-526.
    2. Rivot, Sylvie, 2021. "Reading Keynes’s policy papers through the prism of his Treatise on Probability: information, expectations and revision of probabilities in economic policy," OSF Preprints s5qp9, Center for Open Science.
    3. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2024. "Why was Keynes keen to invest in American but not in British Investment Trusts?," SocArXiv gtre7, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2022. "Keynes's personal investments in the London Stock Exchange and his views on the transformation of the British economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 512-526.
    2. David Chambers & Rasheed Saleuddin, 2020. "Commodity option pricing efficiency before Black, Scholes, and Merton," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 540-564, May.
    3. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    4. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Justin Foo, 2013. "Keynes, King's, and Endowment Asset Management," NBER Chapters, in: How the Financial Crisis and Great Recession Affected Higher Education, pages 127-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chambers, David, 2019. "Commodity Option Pricing Efficiency before Black Scholes Merton," CEPR Discussion Papers 13975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869 – 1945," Working Papers 8, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2019. "Keynes und die Finanzmärkte. Auf halbem Weg vom "homo oeconomicus" zum "homo humanus"," WIFO Working Papers 588, WIFO.
    8. Woods, John E, 2021. "Benjamin Graham on Buffer Stocks," OSF Preprints qdv3n, Center for Open Science.
    9. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality: Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869-1945," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    10. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    11. Bogle, David & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2020. "Capital Market Development Over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers Over Two Centuries," QBS Working Paper Series 2020/11, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    12. Bogle, David A. & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2020. "Capital market development over the long run: The portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    13. David A Bogle & Christopher Coyle & John D Turner, 2022. "Capital market development over the long run: the portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries [Corporate ownership and control in Victorian Britain]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 370-398.
    14. Nicodano, Giovanna & Regis, Luca, 2019. "A trade-off theory of ownership and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 715-735.
    15. Dow Alexander & Dow Sheila C., 2011. "Animal Spirits Revisited," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Sonya Marie SCOTT, 2020. "Rejoinder on animal spirits in Descartes and Keynes: a response to Kurt Smith," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 185-201, November.
    17. Michel Dévoluy, 2021. "Nouveau livre en accès libre : L’économie : une science « impossible » – Déconstruire pour avancer (éditions Vérone, 2e trimestre 2019)," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 44(1), pages 56-56, July.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 2018. "Keynes on the Sequencing of Economic Policy: Recovery and Reform in 1933," NBER Working Papers 24367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Mervyn Allister King, 1993. "Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence," FMG Discussion Papers dp175, Financial Markets Group.
    20. Esteban Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2010. "How Stimulative Has Fiscal Policy Been Around the World?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 6-31.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynes; Investment; Equities; Wall Street; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:35:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0081-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.