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Keynes and the interwar commodity option markets

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  • Maria Cristina Marcuzzo
  • Eleonora Sanfilippo

Abstract

In the first quarter of the twentieth century, options began to be widely employed in the main financial centres in Europe and the USA for trading in spot and futures markets. From 1921 onward, Keynes embarked upon investment in these derivatives mainly—but not exclusively—in the commodity markets, showing a true fascination for this method of speculation. This type of financial investment he pursued mainly in the 1920s, with only a few operations undertaken during the 1930s. The option markets in which Keynes traded were metals—in particular copper, lead, spelter and, especially, tin. Besides metals, Keynes dealt in options also in other commodity markets, such as rubber and linseed oil, and sparingly in ordinary stocks and government securities. In this paper we offer a reconstruction of Keynes’s speculative activity in commodity options, drawing on the archival material kept in the Keynes Papers held at King’s College, Cambridge. This reconstruction is, to the best of our knowledge, entirely new to the literature and aims to provide an analysis of this particular aspect of Keynes’s investment behaviour, investigating his capacity to predict market trends and offering a preliminary assessment of his performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2016. "Keynes and the interwar commodity option markets," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 327-348.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:40:y:2016:i:1:p:327-348.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bev017
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    1. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2016. "Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 49-76, March.
    2. Moggridge, D E, 1992. "The," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 207-209, Summer.
    3. Mixon, Scott, 2009. "Option markets and implied volatility: Past versus present," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 171-191, November.
    4. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina, 2012. "Speculation and regulation in commodity markets: The Keynesian approach in theory and practice," MPRA Paper 44131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2022. "Keynes's personal investments in the London Stock Exchange and his views on the transformation of the British economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 512-526.
    2. Chambers, David, 2019. "Commodity Option Pricing Efficiency before Black Scholes Merton," CEPR Discussion Papers 13975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Woods, John E, 2021. "Benjamin Graham on Buffer Stocks," OSF Preprints qdv3n, Center for Open Science.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2019. "Keynes und die Finanzmärkte. Auf halbem Weg vom "homo oeconomicus" zum "homo humanus"," WIFO Working Papers 588, WIFO.
    5. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2024. "Why was Keynes keen to invest in American but not in British Investment Trusts?," SocArXiv gtre7, Center for Open Science.
    6. Carlo Cristiano & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2018. "Taming the great depression: Keynes’s personal investments in the US stock market, 1931–1939," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 13-40, April.
    7. David Chambers & Rasheed Saleuddin, 2020. "Commodity option pricing efficiency before Black, Scholes, and Merton," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 540-564, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative

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