IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envpol/v20y2018i3d10.1007_s10018-017-0206-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility spillover of energy markets into EUA markets under EU ETS: a multi-phase study

Author

Listed:
  • Ajay K. Dhamija

    (Ministry of Defence)

  • Surendra S. Yadav

    (Indian Institute of Technology (IIT))

  • PK Jain

    (Indian Institute of Technology (IIT))

Abstract

Carbon Management is a strategic priority and organizations need to forecast returns and volatility of carbon for that. Volatility is synonymous with risk and so an understanding of volatility in EUA market is important for making investment decisions. Large changes in volatility of EUA market are capable of giving adverse signals to risk averse investors. The price of EUA, understandably, moves together with prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas. Using EUA daily returns from 2005 to 2015 (covering all three phases of EU ETS and EUA Continuous Series), we investigate volatility co-movement between the EUA market and the energy markets i.e. brent (crude oil), coal and natural gas markets. We employ Multivariate GARCH (BEKK-MGARCH) model and use data of European Climate Exchange Dec 2007, Dec 2012, Dec 2015 expiry and the Continuous Dec 2015 expiry EUA future contracts. The empirical results indicate that there is a high degree of volatility co-movement between EUA market and the markets of brent, coal and natural gas. Results support small but significant volatility spillover from energy markets into EUA markets. At a substantive level, studies on volatility co-movement and spillover provide useful and actionable information for risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajay K. Dhamija & Surendra S. Yadav & PK Jain, 2018. "Volatility spillover of energy markets into EUA markets under EU ETS: a multi-phase study," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(3), pages 561-591, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:20:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10018-017-0206-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10018-017-0206-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10018-017-0206-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10018-017-0206-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
    2. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Shameek Konar & Mark A. Cohen, 2001. "Does The Market Value Environmental Performance?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 281-289, May.
    6. Brian Lucey & Svitlana Voronkova, 2005. "Linkages and relationships between Emerging European and Developed Stock Markets before and after the Russian Crisis of 1997-1998," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp054, IIIS.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Do Socially Responsible Investment Indexes Outperform Conventional Indexes?," MPRA Paper 36662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Frank Venmans, 2015. "Capital market response to emission allowance prices: a multivariate GARCH approach," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(4), pages 577-620, October.
    10. Emilic Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoit Cheze, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 93-126.
    11. Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke, 2010. "Sulfur dioxide allowances: Trading and technological progress," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 623-631, January.
    12. Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Adam Rose & Dan Wei & Noah Miller & Toon Vandyck, 2017. "Equity, Emissions Allowance Trading and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 203-232, October.
    14. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoît Chèze, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial SectorsEmissions Compliances and Carbon Price," Post-Print hal-00649925, HAL.
    15. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Econometric Analysis of Carbon Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-94-007-2412-9, October.
    16. Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets: A vector autoregressive analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 215-226.
    17. Kruger, Joseph & Oates, Wallace E. & Pizer, William A., 2007. "Decentralization in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and Lessons for Global Policy," RFF Working Paper Series dp-07-02, Resources for the Future.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4223 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. A. C. Christiansen & A. Arvanitakis & K. Tangen & H. Hasselknippe, 2005. "Price determinants in the EU emissions trading scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-30, January.
    20. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2017. "The Chicago Climate Exchange and market efficiency: an empirical analysis," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, October.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4224 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Dynamic Spillover and Hedging among Carbon, Biofuel and Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Ren, Xiaohang & Xiao, Ya & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Spillover effects between fossil energy and green markets: Evidence from informational inefficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Yin, Jiuli & Zhu, Yan & Fan, Xinghua, 2021. "Correlation analysis of China’s carbon market and coal market based on multi-scale entropy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & yan, Cheng & Wen, Fenghua & Lu, Zudi, 2022. "The interrelationship between the carbon market and the green bonds market: Evidence from wavelet quantile-on-quantile method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ajay K. Dhamija & Surendra S. Yadav & PK Jain, 2017. "Forecasting volatility of carbon under EU ETS: a multi-phase study," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(2), pages 299-335, April.
    2. Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2013. "Forecasting the European carbon market," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 723-741, June.
    3. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    4. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Carbon trading: past, present and future," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 21, pages 471-489, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "The goodness-of-fit of the fuel-switching price using the mean-reverting Lévy jump process," Working Papers 2014-285, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Rachid Boutti & El Amri Adil & Florence Rodhain, 2019. "Multivariate Analysis of a Time Series EU ETS: Methods and Applications in Carbon Finance," Post-Print hal-03676358, HAL.
    7. Yang Liu & Xueqing Yang & Mei Wang, 2021. "Global Transmission of Returns among Financial, Traditional Energy, Renewable Energy and Carbon Markets: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Panagiotis G. Papaioannou & George P. Papaioannou & Kostas Siettos & Akylas Stratigakos & Christos Dikaiakos, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation between Electricity and Stock markets during the Financial Crisis in Greece," Papers 1708.07063, arXiv.org.
    9. Rittler, Daniel, 2009. "Price Discovery, Causality and Volatility Spillovers in European Union Allowances Phase II: A High Frequency Analysis," Working Papers 0492, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    10. Adil El Amri & Rachid Boutti & Salah Oulfarsi & Florence Rodhain & Brahim Bouzahir, 2020. "Carbon financial markets underlying climate risk management, pricing and forecasting: Fundamental analysis," Post-Print hal-03120782, HAL.
    11. Yue-Jun Zhang, 2016. "Research on carbon emission trading mechanisms: current status and future possibilities," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 39(1/2), pages 89-107.
    12. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    13. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    14. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Kai, 2012. "Estimating risk for the carbon market via extreme value theory: An empirical analysis of the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 97-108.
    15. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2022. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in Japanese stock market in the presence of structural breaks," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 647-677, October.
    16. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2014. "Dynamics of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 02/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    17. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    18. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709, HAL.
    19. Nicolas Koch, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among carbon, energy and financial markets: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 715-729, March.
    20. Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2021. "Dynamic asymmetric optimal portfolio allocation between energy stocks and energy commodities: Evidence from clean energy and oil and gas companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:20:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10018-017-0206-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.