Predicting the abatement costs of RCP climate projections under 2 °C warming limits in the Africa and Middle East Region (2010–2100)

Developing countries, especially Africa, contribute the least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while facing disproportionate impacts of climate change, including environmental and economic. Climate change cost projection studies using integrated assessment models (IAMs) are mostly global and often make policy recommendations for specific regions. This study aims to quantify the abatement costs of implementing four climate policies to limit global warming to 2 degreesCelsius above the pre-industrial era in the Africa and Middle East (AME) region. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2010 to 2100 were employed to forecast these costs. The RCPs were assessed using PAGE 09, an IAM called the policy analysis for greenhouse effects, which evaluates the costs and benefits of climate actions or inactions. The findings indicate that in 2030 at a 90% confidence level, RCP 2.6 is projected to result in a 1.63% GDP loss, equivalent to a potential cost of up to $1,698,829.95 million. Conversely, RCP 6.0 could lead to a loss of as much as 12.22% of GDP. However, the study reveals that as the policies are consistently implemented, the percentage loss of GDP gradually declines and approaches zero by 2100 for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. In the case of RCP 6.0, the decline begins earlier, from 2030. These findings suggest that the economic impact of the RCP climate policies varies during the early stages of their implementation but can become beneficial to the AME region, progressively leading to 2100 with sustained efforts. However, using the RCP profiles directly for a multicultural region like AME is challenging due to the limitations of employing the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) for different emission scenarios and the issue of inconsistent baselines. It is arguable that a hybrid approach combining elements from the four climate pathways could be pursued in the AME region, specifically Africa, to minimize associated economic costs. The AME is essentially diverse. Therefore, the study recommends improving the regional representation of the SSPs and, perhaps, the RCPs, to enhance the accuracy of future assessments. This study is the first to quantify climate change mitigation costs for the AME region by leveraging RCP projections up to 2100, emphasizing Africa, which has been historically neglected despite its high vulnerability index.