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Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gowhar Meraj

    (Suresh Gyan Vihar University
    Government of Jammu and Kashmir)

  • Majid Farooq

    (Suresh Gyan Vihar University
    Government of Jammu and Kashmir)

  • Suraj Kumar Singh

    (Suresh Gyan Vihar University)

  • Shakil A. Romshoo

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Sudhanshu

    (Suresh Gyan Vihar University)

  • M. S. Nathawat

    (Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU))

  • Shruti Kanga

    (Suresh Gyan Vihar University)

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has unleashed havoc across different countries and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Since certain evidences indicate a direct relationship of various viruses with the weather (temperature in particular), the same is being speculated about COVID-19; however, it is still under investigation as the pandemic is advancing the world over. In this study, we tried to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent with respect to the local temperature regimes from March 9, 2020, to May 27, 2020. To establish the relation between COVID-19 and temperature in India, three different ecogeographical regions having significant temperature differences were taken into consideration for the analysis. We observed that except Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kashmir showed a significantly positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases and the temperature during the period of study. The evidences based on the results presented in this research lead us to believe that the increasing temperature is beneficial to the COVID-19 spread, and the cases are going to rise further with the increasing temperature over India. We, therefore, conclude that the existing data, though limited, suggest that the spread of COVID-19 in India is not explained by the variation of temperature alone and is most likely driven by a host of other factors related to epidemiology, socioeconomics and other climatic factors. Based on the results, it is suggested that temperature should not be considered as a yardstick for planning intervention strategies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Gowhar Meraj & Majid Farooq & Suraj Kumar Singh & Shakil A. Romshoo & Sudhanshu & M. S. Nathawat & Shruti Kanga, 2021. "Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6524-6534, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00854-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00854-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Borjas, George J., 2020. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods," IZA Discussion Papers 13115, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Gowhar Meraj & Shakil Romshoo & A. Yousuf & Sadaff Altaf & Farrukh Altaf, 2015. "Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on the flood vulnerability of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 153-175, May.
    3. George Livadiotis, 2020. "Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Gowhar Meraj & Shakil Romshoo & A. Yousuf & Sadaff Altaf & Farrukh Altaf, 2015. "Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on the flood vulnerability of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalaya: reply to comment by Shah 2015," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 1-5, August.
    5. Thunström, Linda & Newbold, Stephen C. & Finnoff, David & Ashworth, Madison & Shogren, Jason F., 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 179-195, July.
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