IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v23y2021i1d10.1007_s10668-019-00575-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting China’s CO2 emissions by considering interaction of bilateral FDI using the improved grey multivariable Verhulst model

Author

Listed:
  • Hang Jiang

    (Jimei University)

  • Peiyi Kong

    (Chung Yuan Christian University
    Xiamen Nanyang University)

  • Yi-Chung Hu

    (Chung Yuan Christian University)

  • Peng Jiang

    (Shandong University)

Abstract

Because of the harmful influence of CO2 emissions on the environment and humans, issues related to CO2 emissions have received considerable attention in recent years. Based on the pollution haven hypothesis and pollution halo effect, the uncertain effect of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions has recently been in focus. Moreover, because of the opposing capital flow of bilateral FDI, the interaction between inward FDI (IFDI) and outward FDI (OFDI) might have a trade-off effect on CO2 emissions. The accurate forecasting of CO2 emissions in China in light of effect of the bilateral FDI is important since the government can use it to regulate emissions’ reduction. The grey multivariable Verhulst model (GMVM) was formulated in this paper with the goal of forecasting CO2 emissions in China by considering the nonlinear, independent, and interaction-related effects of bilateral FDI on them. To enhance the accuracy of prediction, this paper used the Fourier series and the grey prediction model for residual modifications. The empirical results showed that the IFDI and the item of the interaction of bilateral FDI promoted CO2 emissions, whereas OFDI reduced them in China. These results also verified the higher precision of the improved GMVM relative to other models. This paper also used improved GMVM to further forecast CO2 emissions and provided suggestions for the Chinese government to plan for foreign investment, including selectively implementing bilateral FDI, and focusing on the trade-off in its interaction-related effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang Jiang & Peiyi Kong & Yi-Chung Hu & Peng Jiang, 2021. "Forecasting China’s CO2 emissions by considering interaction of bilateral FDI using the improved grey multivariable Verhulst model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 225-240, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-019-00575-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-019-00575-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-019-00575-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-019-00575-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Korhan Gökmenoğlu & Nigar Taspinar, 2016. "The relationship between Co 2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth and FDI: the case of Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 706-723, August.
    2. Jiajia Zheng & Pengfei Sheng, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Environment: Market Perspectives and Evidence from China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2013. "Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 363-375.
    4. H. Ben Hassine & F. Boudier & C. Mathieu, 2017. "The two ways of FDI R&D spillovers: evidence from the French manufacturing industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2395-2408, May.
    5. Zhu, Huiming & Duan, Lijun & Guo, Yawei & Yu, Keming, 2016. "The effects of FDI, economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions in ASEAN-5: Evidence from panel quantile regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 237-248.
    6. Zheng-Xin Wang & Ling-Ling Pei, 2014. "An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-7, February.
    7. John Dunning, 1981. "Explaining the international direct investment position of countries: Towards a dynamic or developmental approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(1), pages 30-64, March.
    8. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
    9. Werner Antweiler & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2001. "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 877-908, September.
    10. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 1994. "North-South Trade and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 755-787.
    11. Yu Hao & Yi-Ming Liu, 2015. "Has the development of FDI and foreign trade contributed to China’s CO 2 emissions? An empirical study with provincial panel data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1079-1091, March.
    12. Wu, Lifeng & Liu, Sifeng & Liu, Dinglin & Fang, Zhigeng & Xu, Haiyan, 2015. "Modelling and forecasting CO2 emissions in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries using a novel multi-variable grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 489-495.
    13. Yi-Chung Hu, 2017. "Predicting Foreign Tourists for the Tourism Industry Using Soft Computing-Based Grey–Markov Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-12, July.
    14. Zhang, Lin, 2017. "The knowledge spillover effects of FDI on the productivity and efficiency of research activities in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao Liu & Lan-Ye Wei, 2022. "Effects of ODI and export trade structure on CO2 emissions in China: nonlinear relationships," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13630-13656, December.
    2. Geng Wu & Yi-Chung Hu & Yu-Jing Chiu & Shu-Ju Tsao, 2023. "A new multivariate grey prediction model for forecasting China’s regional energy consumption," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4173-4193, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demena, Binyam Afewerk & Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2020. "The effect of FDI on environmental emissions: Evidence from a meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Chao-Qun Ma & Jiang-Long Liu & Yi-Shuai Ren & Yong Jiang, 2019. "The Impact of Economic Growth, FDI and Energy Intensity on China’s Manufacturing Industry’s CO 2 Emissions: An Empirical Study Based on the Fixed-Effect Panel Quantile Regression Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Liu, Yiming & Hao, Yu & Gao, Yixuan, 2017. "The environmental consequences of domestic and foreign investment: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 271-280.
    4. Wen Jun & Muhammad Zakaria & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Hamid Mahmood, 2018. "Effect of FDI on Pollution in China: New Insights Based on Wavelet Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Singhania, Monica & Saini, Neha, 2021. "Demystifying pollution haven hypothesis: Role of FDI," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 516-528.
    6. Ma, Xuejiao & Jiang, Ping & Jiang, Qichuan, 2020. "Research and application of association rule algorithm and an optimized grey model in carbon emissions forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Qiang Wang & Ting Yang & Rongrong Li & Xiaowei Wang, 2023. "Reexamining the impact of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions: does per capita GDP matter?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Vishal Dagar & Farhan Ahmed & Farah Waheed & Štefan Bojnec & Muhammad Kamran Khan & Sana Shaikh, 2022. "Testing the Pollution Haven Hypothesis with the Role of Foreign Direct Investments and Total Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Wang, Jing & Wan, Guanghua & Wang, Chen, 2019. "Participation in GVCs and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Lei Gao & Taowu Pei & Jingran Zhang & Yu Tian, 2022. "The “Pollution Halo” Effect of FDI: Evidence from the Chinese Sichuan–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Yan, Bingqian & Xia, Yan & Jiang, Xuemei, 2023. "Carbon productivity and value-added generations: Regional heterogeneity along global value chain," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 111-125.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    13. Yang, Yuting, 2022. "Electricity interconnection with intermittent renewables," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 2012. "Are exporters more environmentally friendly than non-exporters? Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 201210040700001076, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Copeland, Brian R., 2005. "Policy Endogeneity and the Effects of Trade on the Environment," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Jiansheng You & Guohan Ding & Liyuan Zhang, 2022. "Heterogeneous Dynamic Correlation Research among Industrial Structure Distortion, Two-Way FDI and Carbon Emission Intensity in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Ling-Yun He & Liang Wang, 2019. "Import Liberalization of Intermediates and Environment: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Ajayi, Patricia & Ogunrinola, Adedeji, 2020. "Growth, Trade Openness and Environmental Degradation in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 100713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sami Bensassi & Laura Márquez-Ramos & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Habib Zitouna, 2011. "The Geography of Trade and the Environment: The Case of CO2 Emissions," Working Papers 635, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    20. Edy Yusuf Agung Gunanto & Tri Wahyu & Jaka Aminata & Banatul Hayati, 2021. "Convergence CO2 Emission in ASEAN Countries: Augmented Green Solow Model Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 572-578.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10668-019-00575-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.