Aquaculture, fish resources and rural livelihoods: a village CGE analysis from Namibia’s Zambezi Region

Aquaculture is widely recognised as a way to reduce malnutrition and poverty. So far, research has mainly focused on Asia, and the few studies available from sub-Saharan Africa are predominantly ex-post partial analyses. By constructing a village computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we aim to investigate whether aquaculture improves local livelihoods and simultaneously has the potential to counteract local overfishing. We apply this to a rural case study region in Namibia where malnutrition, poverty and fish resource overexploitation are current problems. Our village CGE model shows that aquaculture would be a viable livelihood activity improving household incomes and utility through labour reallocations. Furthermore, aquaculture can counteract malnutrition through increased fish consumption. Higher opportunity costs lead to households leaving the fisheries and switching to aquaculture. These substitution effects offer the possibility of reducing the pressure on local freshwater fish stocks. Policy makers can use the results to introduce aquaculture interventions in rural areas. Our findings indicate that such interventions should take particular account of the poorest households, which are most dependent on fisheries. The derived opportunity costs provide information about payments that are necessary to make policy interventions acceptable for different household groups.