IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v22y2020i2d10.1007_s10668-018-0211-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Hashem Dadashpoor

    (Tarbiat Modares University (TMU)
    TMU)

  • Fardis Salarian

    (Isfahan University of Art)

Abstract

Land use changes, sprawl and its implications for natural lands (garden, agricultural and cultivated lands) have received increasing consideration in many countries and regions over the past decades. However, our knowledge of analysis of land use changes and urban sprawl resulted by the loss of natural land is still unclear specifically in developing countries such as Iran. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze and predict the trend of land use changes and sprawl since 1986–2040 in Mazandaran city region in the northern part of Iran. In this regard, the SLEUTH and Land Transformation Models (LTM) were used to predict the use of natural lands. The data used in this study included satellite images of remote sensing (Landsat TM) in 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2015. Results show that the process of destruction of natural lands has intensified in favor of construction process, in a way that built-up lands with a growth rate of 4.79% changed from 30.91 km2 in 1986 to 120.04 km2 in 2015. It is predicted that built-up lands will increase by 4.82% growth in 2040. While, garden lands will have 1.3% decrease because of its adjacent to urban lands and locating in the built-up areas. Most changes in forest lands have been reduced by 1.8% if these lands are highly valued as national and regional potentials and may change the animal and plant species cycle. Agricultural lands have been reduced by 1.12%, but due to the fact that the largest share of land in the study area is cultivated and its decline is less than that of other lands. The trend of land use changes indicates that the region will inevitably develop and expand in the future. But, its consequences can be controlled by applying suitable policies and solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hashem Dadashpoor & Fardis Salarian, 2020. "Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 593-614, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-018-0211-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-018-0211-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-018-0211-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-018-0211-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hashem Dadashpoor & Mahboobeh Nateghi, 2017. "Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 527-547, April.
    2. Lizhong Hua & Lina Tang & Shenghui Cui & Kai Yin, 2014. "Simulating Urban Growth Using the SLEUTH Model in a Coastal Peri-Urban District in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Michael P Johnson, 2001. "Environmental Impacts of Urban Sprawl: A Survey of the Literature and Proposed Research Agenda," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 33(4), pages 717-735, April.
    4. David Popp, 2001. "Altruism and the Demand for Environmental Quality," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(3), pages 339-349.
    5. Rafael Alvarado & Elisa Toledo, 2017. "Environmental degradation and economic growth: evidence for a developing country," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1205-1218, August.
    6. Heng Sun & Wayne Forsythe & Nigel Waters, 2007. "Modeling Urban Land Use Change and Urban Sprawl: Calgary, Alberta, Canada," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 353-376, December.
    7. Lin, Huiyan & Lu, Kang Shou & Espey, Molly & Allen, Jeffery, 2005. "Modeling Urban Sprawl and Land Use Change in a Coastal Area-- A Neural Network Approach," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19364, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    9. OMRANI Hichem & CHARIF Omar & GERBER Philippe & BÓDIS Katalin & BASSE Reine Maria, 2012. "Simulation of land use changes using cellular automata and artificial neural network," LISER Working Paper Series 2012-01, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    10. Ekko C. van Ierland, Robert G.J. Huiberts, 2001. "Transport and the environment in the Netherlands," International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 269-273.
    11. Iwmi, 2001. "Dialogue on water, food and environment: Proposal," IWMI Books, Reports H028791, International Water Management Institute.
    12. William Dudley, 2009. "A preliminary assessment of the TALF," Speech 6, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Anil Markandya, 2001. "Poverty, environment and development," Chapters, in: Henk Folmer & H. Landis Gabel & Shelby Gerking & Adam Rose (ed.), Frontiers of Environmental Economics, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mudapakati, Caroline Paidamoyo & Bandauko, Elmond & Chaeruka, Joel & Arku, Godwin, 2024. "Peri-urbanisation and land conflicts in Domboshava, Zimbabwe," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    3. Sunil Kumar & Swagata Ghosh & Sultan Singh, 2022. "Polycentric urban growth and identification of urban hot spots in Faridabad, the million-plus metropolitan city of Haryana, India: a zonal assessment using spatial metrics and GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8246-8286, June.
    4. Hashem Dadashpoor & Hossein Panahi, 2021. "Exploring an integrated spatially model for land-use scenarios simulation in a metropolitan region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13628-13649, September.
    5. Lan, Hai & Zheng, Puyang & Li, Zheng, 2021. "Constructing urban sprawl measurement system of the Yangtze River economic belt zone for healthier lives and social changes in sustainable cities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Tomasz Zaborowski, 2021. "It’s All about Details. Why the Polish Land Policy Framework Fails to Manage Designation of Developable Land," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, August.
    7. Tao Peng & Hongwei Deng, 2021. "Study on the division of main functional regions based on relative carrying capacity of resources: a case study of Guiyang, southwest China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 9493-9513, June.
    8. Xueru Zhang & Jie Zhou & Wei Song, 2020. "Simulating Urban Sprawl in China Based on the Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata-Markov Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-13, May.
    9. Vishal Chettry & Meenal Surawar, 2021. "Assessment of urban sprawl characteristics in Indian cities using remote sensing: case studies of Patna, Ranchi, and Srinagar," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11913-11935, August.
    10. Parviz Azizi & Ali Soltani & Farokh Bagheri & Shahrzad Sharifi & Mehdi Mikaeili, 2022. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Srinivas & Ajit Pratap Singh & Divyanshu Shankar, 2020. "Understanding the threats and challenges concerning Ganges River basin for effective policy recommendations towards sustainable development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3655-3690, April.
    2. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Vermeiren, Karolien & Crols, Tomas & Uljee, Inge & De Nocker, Leo & Beckx, Carolien & Pisman, Ann & Broekx, Steven & Poelmans, Lien, 2022. "Modelling urban sprawl and assessing its costs in the planning process: A case study in Flanders, Belgium," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Yilun Liu & Yueming Hu & Shaoqiu Long & Luo Liu & Xiaoping Liu, 2017. "Analysis of the Effectiveness of Urban Land-Use-Change Models Based on the Measurement of Spatio-Temporal, Dynamic Urban Growth: A Cellular Automata Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Shivangi S. Somvanshi & Oshin Bhalla & Phool Kunwar & Madhulika Singh & Prafull Singh, 2020. "Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1073-1091, February.
    6. Auwalu Faisal Koko & Wu Yue & Ghali Abdullahi Abubakar & Roknisadeh Hamed & Akram Ahmed Noman Alabsi, 2020. "Monitoring and Predicting Spatio-Temporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Zaria City, Nigeria, through an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model (CA-Markov)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Wang, Han & Tian, Fuan & Wu, Jianxian & Nie, Xin, 2023. "Is China forest landscape restoration (FLR) worth it? A cost-benefit analysis and non-equilibrium ecological view," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Thomas Bolognesi, 2015. "The water vulnerability of metro and megacities: An investigation of structural determinants," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 123-133, May.
    9. Yaoyao Zhu & Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling, 2022. "A Systematic Review of Morphological Transformation of Urban Open Spaces: Drivers, Trends, and Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. B. Venkatraja, 2021. "Does China exhibit any evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 88-110,111-.
    11. Kentaka Aruga, 2017. "Consumer responses to food produced near the Fukushima nuclear plant," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(4), pages 677-690, October.
    12. Daniela Smiraglia & Luca Salvati & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Giménez-Morera & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, 2021. "Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl, Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    14. Benno Torgler & Bruno S. Frey & Clevo Wilson, 2007. "Environmental and Pro-Social Norms: Evidence from 30 Countries," Working Papers 2007.84, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Satria Tirtayasa & A. Akrim & Ade Gunawan & Emilda Sulasmi & Hastin Umi Anisah, 2021. "Significance of Economic Activities in Environmental Protection: Evidence from a Panel of 4-ASEAN Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 420-426.
    16. Zambon, Ilaria & Serra, Pere & Grigoriadis, Efstathios & Carlucci, Margherita & Salvati, Luca, 2017. "Emerging urban centrality: An entropy-based indicator of polycentric development and economic growth," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 365-371.
    17. Natacha Raffin, 2009. "Environmental health and education: Towards sustainable growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09026, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. Jie Bao & Chengcheng Xu & Pan Liu & Wei Wang, 2017. "Exploring Bikesharing Travel Patterns and Trip Purposes Using Smart Card Data and Online Point of Interests," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1231-1253, December.
    19. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    20. Bereitschaft, Bradley, 2020. "Gentrification and the evolution of commuting behavior within America's urban cores, 2000–2015," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-018-0211-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.