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Forecasting unemployment with Google Trends: age, gender and digital divide

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Mulero

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

This paper uses time series of job search queries from Google Trends to predict the unemployment in Spain. Within this framework, we study the effect of the so-called digital divide, by age and gender, from the predictions obtained with the Google Trends tool. Regarding males, our results evidence a digital divide effect in favor of the youngest unemployed. Conversely, the forecasts obtained for female and total unemployment clearly reject such effect. More interestingly, Google Trends queries turn out to be much better predictors for female than male unemployment, being this result robust to age groups. Additionally, the number of good predictors identified from the job search queries is also higher for women, suggesting that they are more likely to expand their job search through different queries.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Mulero & Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux, 2023. "Forecasting unemployment with Google Trends: age, gender and digital divide," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 587-605, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:65:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-022-02347-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02347-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Digital divide; Forecasting; Gender; Google Trends; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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