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The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

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  • Francisco Arizala

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Charalambos G. Tsangarides

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Mustafa Yenice

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those estimated in the literature for advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: Cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: Fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Arizala & Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:61:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01863-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01863-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Burger & Estian Calitz, 2019. "Sustainable fiscal policy and economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 15/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    2. Serena Merrino, 2021. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics: An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Ribeiro, Ana Paula & Carvalho, Vitor & Sanches, Hélder, 2021. "Debt dynamics and fiscal policy stance in Cape Verde: Is there evidence of pro-cyclical behavior?," MPRA Paper 111305, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    6. Serena Merrino, 2021. "Statedependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa," Working Papers 11015, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Dawood, Taufiq Carnegie & Francois, John Nana, 2018. "Substitution between private and government consumption in African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-139.
    8. Impawe Augustin, 2019. "Public Consumption and Income in the Long Run: A Panel Data Study for Central African Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 101-101, June.
    9. Francois, John Nana & Keinsley, Andrew, 2019. "The long-run relationship between public consumption and output in developing countries: Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 96-99.
    10. Philippe Burger & Estian Calitz, 2021. "Covid‐19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 3-24, March.
    11. Sayed O. M. Timuno & Joel Hinaunye Eita & Lanouar Charfeddine, 2020. "Towards an effective fiscal stimulus: Evidence from Botswana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1790948-179, January.
    12. Woldu, Gabriel Temesgen & Szakálné Kanó, Izabella, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in SSA countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Fiscal consolidations; Fiscal multipliers; Local projections; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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