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State-dependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics: An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa

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  • Serena Merrino

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess South Africa's fiscal multiplier across different states of the economy, with a focus on the financial accelerator mechanism of fiscal policy shocks, by estimating impulse response functions from both linear and non-linear local projections. The model finds evidence of strong business cycle effects such that, while the average multiplier is below 0.5, it reaches 1.2 during recessions and that, while credit volume diminishes during periods of positive output gap, it expands otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Serena Merrino, 2021. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics: An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-77
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2021-77-state-dependent-fiscal-multipliers-financial-dynamics-South-Africa.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco Arizala & Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    2. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    3. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    5. Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes: A case of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 771-785.
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    Cited by:

    1. Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2024. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress (or what to do when r > g)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 1020-1054.
    2. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Thando Ngozo, 2024. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa: A Structural Var Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(2), pages 45-55.
    3. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    4. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; impulse response; State-dependent; Credit; South Africa; Financial dynamics;
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