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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

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Listed:
  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
  • Ksenia Koloskova

Abstract

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/213
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    3. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Campoy-Muñoz, Pilar & Cardenete Flores, Manuel Alejandro & Delgado, M. Carmen & Hewings, Geoffrey, 2016. "Effects of a reduction in employers' social security contributions: Evidence from Spain," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
    6. Honda, Jiro & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2021. "How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    8. T. Bogdan, 2016. "Ukraine's fiscal adjustment in European context," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 7-24.
    9. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:03p:431 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Edith Kitzmantel, 2016. "EU-Fiskalregeln - Anker oder Mühlstein der europäischen Wirtschaftspolitik?," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 431-450.
    11. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.

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