IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v54y2018i3d10.1007_s00181-017-1236-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accelerating the transition to employment at benefit exhaustion: still possible after four years of unemployment?

Author

Listed:
  • Lars Pico Geerdsen

    (Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Economic Research)

  • Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen

    (SFI - The Danish National Centre for Social Research)

  • Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall

    (Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of how the long-term unemployed react to the threat of running out of unemployment insurance (UI) after receiving it for nearly 4 years. To identify the effect of UI exhaustion, we make use of a 1999 Danish legislative change that progressively reduced potential benefit duration from 5 to 4 years. We find that shortening UI duration hastens the transition to employment throughout the unemployment spell up to benefit exhaustion even if it occurs as long as 4 years later. However, although the proportional effect is large, it is small in absolute value.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Pico Geerdsen & Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen & Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall, 2018. "Accelerating the transition to employment at benefit exhaustion: still possible after four years of unemployment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1107-1135, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1236-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1236-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1236-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-017-1236-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fortin, Bernard & Lacroix, Guy & Drolet, Simon, 2004. "Welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells: evidence from a natural experiment in Canada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1495-1520, July.
    2. Carling, Kenneth & Edin, Per-Anders & Harkman, Anders & Holmlund, Bertil, 1996. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits, and labor market programs in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 313-334, March.
    3. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    4. Jan Boone & Jan Ours, 2012. "Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 413-438, December.
    5. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2012. "Job search incentives and job match quality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 438-450.
    6. Kyyrä, Tomi & Parrotta, Pierpaolo & Rosholm, Michael, 2013. "The effect of receiving supplementary UI benefits on unemployment duration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 122-133.
    7. Marco Caliendo & Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Arne Uhlendorff, 2013. "Benefit Duration, Unemployment Duration And Job Match Quality: A Regression‐Discontinuity Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 604-627, June.
    8. Gerard J. van den Berg, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 255-277.
    9. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    10. Bergstrom, R & Edin, P-A, 1992. "Time Aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, Jan.-Marc.
    11. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    12. Addison, John T. & Portugal, Pedro, 2004. "How does the unemployment insurance system shape the time profile of jobless duration?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 229-234, November.
    13. Ham, John C & Rea, Samuel A, Jr, 1987. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 325-353, July.
    14. Bas Van der Klaauw & Jan C. Van Ours, 2013. "Carrot And Stick: How Re‐Employment Bonuses And Benefit Sanctions Affect Exit Rates From Welfare," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 275-296, March.
    15. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda, 2012. "Unemployment insurance and job turnover in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 403-426.
    16. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
    17. Trine Filges & Lars Pico Geerdsen & Anne‐Sofie Due Knudsen & Anne‐Marie Klint Jørgensen & Krystyna Kowalski, 2013. "Unemployment Benefit Exhaustion: Incentive Effects on Job Finding Rates: A Systematic Review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 1-104.
    18. Pellizzari, Michele, 2006. "Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 773-798, December.
    19. Moffitt, Robert & Nicholson, Walter, 1982. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment: The Case of Federal Supplemental Benefits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-11, February.
    20. Michael Rosholm & Michael Svarer, 2008. "The Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 385-401, June.
    21. Juha Tuomala, 2011. "The Threat Effect of Mandatory Programmes in Finland," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 25(4), pages 508-527, December.
    22. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    23. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    24. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    25. Lalive, Rafael & Zweimuller, Josef, 2004. "Benefit entitlement and unemployment duration: The role of policy endogeneity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2587-2616, December.
    26. Stephen P. Jenkins & Carlos García‐Serrano, 2004. "The Relationship between Unemployment Benefits and Re‐employment Probabilities: Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 239-260, May.
    27. van Ours, Jan C. & Vodopivec, Milan, 2008. "Does reducing unemployment insurance generosity reduce job match quality?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 684-695, April.
    28. Card, David & Levine, Phillip B., 2000. "Extended benefits and the duration of UI spells: evidence from the New Jersey extended benefit program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 107-138, October.
    29. Rogers, Cynthia L, 1998. "Expectations of Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Duration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(3), pages 630-666, July.
    30. Liliana Winkelmann & Rainer Winkelmann, 1998. "Why Are the Unemployed So Unhappy?Evidence from Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 1-15, February.
    31. Jan C. van Ours & Milan Vodopivec, 2006. "How Shortening the Potential Duration of Unemployment Benefits Affects the Duration of Unemployment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 351-378, April.
    32. Michael Rosholm, 2001. "Cyclical variations in unemployment duration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 173-191.
    33. Geerdsen, Lars Pico & Holm, Anders, 2007. "Duration of UI periods and the perceived threat effect from labour market programmes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 639-652, June.
    34. Brian Graversen & Brian Larsen, 2013. "Is there a threat effect of mandatory activation programmes for the long-term unemployed?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 1031-1051, April.
    35. Burdett, Kenneth, 1979. "Unemployment Insurance Payments as a Search Subsidy: A Theoretical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 333-343, July.
    36. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August.
    37. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyyrä, Tomi & Pesola, Hanna & Verho, Jouko, 2017. "The spike at benefit exhaustion in the Finnish labor market," Working Papers 86, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Kyyrä, Tomi & Pesola, Hanna & Verho, Jouko, 2019. "The spike at benefit exhaustion: The role of measurement error in benefit eligibility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 75-83.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael Lalive & Jan Van Ours & Josef Zweimuller, 2006. "How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1009-1038.
    2. Lionel Cottier & Kathrin Degen & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Can unemployment benefit cuts improve employment and earnings?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 659-699, August.
    3. Konstantinos Tatsiramos & Jan C. Ours, 2014. "Labor Market Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 284-311, April.
    4. Marta C. Lopes, 2022. "A review on the elasticity of unemployment duration to the potential duration of unemployment benefits," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1212-1224, September.
    5. Tito Boeri & Jan van Ours, 2013. "The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets: Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10142.
    6. Bennmarker, Helge & Skans, Oskar Nordström & Vikman, Ulrika, 2013. "Workfare for the old and long-term unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 25-34.
    7. Lalive, Rafael & Zweimuller, Josef, 2004. "Benefit entitlement and unemployment duration: The role of policy endogeneity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2587-2616, December.
    8. Rafael Lalive & Jan Ours & Josef Zweimüller, 2011. "Equilibrium unemployment and the duration of unemployment benefits," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1385-1409, October.
    9. Simoes, Nadia, 2013. "Subsídio de desemprego: uma revisão da literatura teórica e empírica [Unemployment insurance: a survey]," MPRA Paper 52332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jan Boone & Jan Ours, 2012. "Why is There a Spike in the Job Finding Rate at Benefit Exhaustion?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 413-438, December.
    11. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    12. Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2016. "The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-29.
    13. de Groot, Nynke & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2019. "The effects of reducing the entitlement period to unemployment insurance benefits," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 195-208.
    14. Yolanda Rebollo-Sanz & J. García-Pérez, 2015. "Are unemployment benefits harmful to the stability of working careers? The case of Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, March.
    15. Elif S. Filiz, 2017. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Generosity on Unemployment Duration and Labor Market Transitions," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 31(4), pages 369-393, December.
    16. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda Fatima & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2016. "When the Going Gets Tough... Financial Incentives, Duration of Unemployment and Job-Match Quality," IZA Discussion Papers 10044, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Arranz, José M., 2006. "Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits and recalls," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb066218, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    18. Emmanuel Duguet & Florent Frémigacci & Yannick L’Horty, 2008. "Indemnisation du chômage et retour à l’emploi : un examen économétrique," Documents de recherche 08-07, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    19. Inna Petrunyk & Christian Pfeifer, 2018. "Shortening the potential duration of unemployment benefits and labor market outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment in Germany," Working Paper Series in Economics 377, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    20. Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Unemployment duration and economic incentives--a quasi random-assignment approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1799-1825, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment duration; Benefit entitlement; Unemployment insurance; UI exhaustion; Shortening of UI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1236-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.