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Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Tolga Omay

    (Turk Hava Kurumu University)

  • Ayşegül Çorakcı

    (Çankaya University)

  • Furkan Emirmahmutoglu

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Real interest rate is a crucial variable that determines the consumption, investment and saving behavior of individuals and thereby acts as a key policy tool that the central banks use to control the economy. Although many important theoretical models require the real interest rates to be stationary, the empirical evidence accumulated so far has not been able to provide conclusive evidence on the mean reverting dynamics of this variable. To resolve this puzzle we re-investigate the stochastic nature of the real interest rates by developing unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis allows for a smooth transition between deterministic linear trends around which stationary asymmetric adjustment may occur. When the newly developed panel unit root tests are applied to the real interest rates of the 17 OECD countries, we were able to uncover overwhelming empirical support in favor of mean reversion in the short-run and long-run real interest rates. Therefore, these results show that the conclusions drawn from a miss-specified test that ignores the presence of either nonlinearity, structural breaks or cross sectional dependence can give quite misleading results about the stochastic behavior of the real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolga Omay & Ayşegül Çorakcı & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2017. "Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 283-307, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-015-1065-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-1065-1
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    3. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
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    9. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Omay, Tolga, 2022. "Convergence of per capita energy consumption around the world: New evidence from nonlinear panel unit root tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Zarina Oflaz, 2017. "Structural Break, Nonlinearity and the Hysteresis hypothesis: Evidence from new unit root tests," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 4(2), pages 1-16.
    11. Banu Kurtaran, 2015. "Re-examining the PPP Hypothesis via Nonlinearity and Smooth Breaks," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21.
    12. Zixiong Xie & Shyh-Wei Chen & An-Chi Wu, 2023. "Real interest rate parity in the Pacific Rim countries: new empirical evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1471-1515, March.
    13. Tolga Omay & Perihan Iren, 2023. "Controlling Heterogeneous Structure of Smooth Breaks in Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Testing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 233-265, January.
    14. Resat Ceylan & Mehmet Ivrendi & Muhammed Shahbaz & Tolga Omay, 2022. "Oil and stock prices: New evidence from a time varying homogenous panel smooth transition VECM for seven developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1085-1100, January.
    15. Gülsüm AKARSU & Reyhan CAFRI & Hanife BIDIRDI, 2019. "Are Public-Private Components of Health Care Expenditures Converging Among OECD Countries? Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel Unit Root TestAbstract: Many countries devote an increasing proportion of the," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Omay, Tolga & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Sharp and Smooth Breaks in Unit Root Testing of Renewable Energy Consumption: The Way Forward," MPRA Paper 92176, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2019.

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